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  1. M

    Stress Test Results Leaked

    Apparently, not very...
  2. M

    Here we go: bank stress test rumors...

    The opposite take: http://www.time.com/time/business/article/0,8599,1892401,00.html
  3. M

    Here we go: bank stress test rumors...

    Denied now, obviously... RTRS-U.S. TREASURY SPOKESMAN SAYS DO NOT HAVE RESULTS YET FOR BANK STRESS TESTS 100% agreed with Arnie, they're walking a tightrope over a VERY deep chasm here. If they make the results too rosy, they risk a very large...
  4. M

    Here we go: bank stress test rumors...

    Bank "stress test" results obtained for top 19 banks, Turner Radio Network says A copy of the stress test results were obtained by The Turner Radio Network, and the site says the results are "very bad." Out of the top 19 banks in the U.S., 16 of them are already technically insolvent and out...
  5. M

    Appropriate probability density function

    How about SABR as an alternative approach? It evolved as a sort of counterpoint to the local vol models, which constitute another alternative to BS. As to skewness and kurtosis, there are a couple of good books on trading vol that discuss those subjects. Go look at papers on wilmott.com...
  6. M

    calculator to derive IV skew from VIX

    Huh? Given that VIX is an estimator based on prices of both calls and puts, how do you expect it to be possible to reliably imply the skew just from the VIX/expiry/ATM? Unless you make some arbitrary assumptions, it's not a well-formed problem.
  7. M

    Daily Hottie

    Actually, there's a theory that suggests that the reason breasts have sexual connotations to human males is that female cleavage looks like an ass. All other mammals (esp primates) use buttocks to determine mating availability, so humans just went a bit further. You could sorta say that human...
  8. M

    U.S. banks’ derivatives exposure explodes to $200 trillion

    In fact, let me mention one thing. People keep going on about CDS, interest rate swaps and other financial derivative mkts being too big in notional terms. Why is nobody talking about the life insurance mkt? It's over $19trn in face value in the US alone. Why are we not standardizing that...
  9. M

    New Jersey Pension System's Unfunded Liability Increases to $34.4 Billion

    Big deal... The UK defined benefit pension system is underfunded to the tune of arnd $375bn.
  10. M

    Should all roads and highways be privatized???

    If you wanna see a detailed analysis (by Pew Foundation Center for States), look here: http://www.pewtrusts.org/our_work_report_detail.aspx?id=50316&category=544
  11. M

    Should all roads and highways be privatized???

    Hard to do... Pennsylvania tried to do this and it turned into a complete sh1tshow.
  12. M

    Anybody else short US 30 Bond

    TIPS are an irrelevant asset class, sadly...
  13. M

    FICC income from GS and Investment Banking income from JPM

    Well, seeing as how FICC stands for 'fixed income, currencies and commodities', how do you figure manipulation of the equity mkt has anything to do with it?
  14. M

    Yield Curves for various Markets

    I don't know if this gives you historical data, but here's something: http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/rates/index.html Also, this site offers a nice online LIBOR curve construction facility: http://www.bramaan.com/bramaanClient/bramaanCurveView.php
  15. M

    Commerzbank exposed with 2.6 billion USD unsecured loans to General Growth bankruptcy

    Isn't this the co that this guy Ackman is heavily invested in?
  16. M

    China GDP

    It was actually a relatively on consensus number. The details were also somewhat encouraging, in terms of the leading indicator components and the impact of the stimuli.
  17. M

    Silent "Run on the Bank" happening now

    It's window-dressing for corp tax day, which is today... People lifting o/n repo only to give it all back tomorrow. How would m-mkt fund withdrawals have any direct impact on T-bills? The two are correlated, but there's no causal relationship.
  18. M

    "Deficits Don't Matter"

    Deficits don't matter in exactly the same fashion as mark-to-market doesn't matter...
  19. M

    Beating the coming inflation

    I completely agree with both of you guys, Tex and piezoe... I can only add a couple of smallish points. Firstly, the issue is not just localized to the US. Other Western economies, like the UK, have allowed themselves to be dragged into the same morass. The biggest problem with...
  20. M

    Who's having credit events?

    Well, it's all about selling outstrike options. Naturally, the longer the world remains 'nice' and stable, the more people are willing to sell all sorts of tail risk... As to why nobody wanted to buy them, I think it's, as the AI guy pointed out, all about the various restrictions on balance...
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