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One of the goals of QE is to make USTs so expensive that people are forced into buying riskier, higher-yielding corps and mtge paper. So, in answer to your first question, you should be watching the corp and mtge spreads. In answer to the second question, you should be watching for one...

This out on the tapes... GOVT OFFICIAL: BERNANKE DID NOT ASK LEWIS NOT TO DISCLOSE LOSSES AT MERRILL

It's hardly a gem, to be honest. Levitt is just one of quite a bunch of behavioral economists that do similar research. Yes, he's brilliant, without a doubt, but there are others out there. In my view, the economists I consider to be the founding fathers of the field, Kahneman and Tversky...

Good article... Thx!

I am not a big fan of the book (too much beating of his own drum for my taste). However, I do think you have not been reading it very carefully. There's quite a bit more about subjects other than abortion.

Here are my thoughts on the matter. Your question itself illustrates the most important puzzle. Specifically, you're suggesting two factors create bubbles: 1) loose credit (aka excess leverage); 2) fundamental human nature (optimism/risk seeking/greed, whatever you call it). The most...

Yep, Stanley somehow didn't get admitted to the 'happy club'...

Risk premium, amico...

Guess so... $3bn 30y and $2bn 25y, I'm told.

Might be the MTA 'Build America' issue... $650MM, multiple maturities, incl 30y.

Everything stated in the article is self-evident and well-known. Milken's not exactly shocking anyone these days by pointing out that capital structure actually does matter. He doesn't actually attempt to explain why 'leverage bubbles' arise. Neither is he able to provide any...

There are some threads here about this... The $4.7trn figure is quite an exaggeration due to a variety of technical details.

IMHO, STIRs, such as Eurodollar/Euribor/Sht Sterling, are mechanically the easiest to play with, although there's quite a lot of positioning/flow that goes into them. Bond futures are OK, as well, but there's a few more moving parts. Caveat emptor, if you don't understand them properly.

I have a question for the Trading God... Where can I get my hands on that good ganja you be smoking?

Yep, I like the risk/reward, so I'm with you...

Aussie and Kiwi are both a wee bit overvalued here (Kiwi more than Aussie), I think, but it's not too bad. Not a bad trade to have on, long-term.

At the moment, it's all the same trade, in my view... Specifically, risk aversion higher = VIX higher = equities lower = DXY higher.

What about starting with some Fixed Income required reading? Like Tuckman's 'Fixed Income Securities', Burghardt's 'Treasury Bond Basis' and 'Eurodollar Futures and Options Handbook', etc. Another one of my favorites is the old Solly's 'Understanding the Yield Curve' series by Antti Ilmanen.

I believe this to be the 3rd thread on this subject...

If you're going to do this, you'd better define the terms 'prediction' and 'wrong' a little more rigorously. I also don't agree on the losing condition, because it's just not trading-like. Just like i don't lose the farm if one of my trades goes wrong, I don't intend to leave ET (it's too much...