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Not entirely sure I understand (3).

So you're proposing a bear call credit spread and a short put? What happens if TSLA spikes above $300? You lose a lot on the spread and don't make much on the put, right?

Do you have historical price data that you can assess to possibly answer your question? I can chart price of a given strike/expiry over time. Do that for a few different strikes and see which one has the highest % gain when the underlying moves your way. (Do the opposite, too. Look at the...

UVXY tends to do one thing: go down. What's the delta on the $5 (now $25) puts?

So the higher vega of back month puts is effectively muted by a lower volatility pop?

Or, you could just buy the UGA ETF on the dips and build a position that will profit as gas prices rise.

What are some good sources for historical and current information on the VIX futures? I see some pay sites . . . are they the only options (heh)?

. . . and they actually were trading on inside information, as the news was not really "out" when they placed those trades.

Stop losses reduce performance.

I'm sorry . . . what? Were those butterflies? And when you say "sold" did you put them on for a credit or a debit? SPX opened ~ 2040, so to profit they weren't the typical credit iron condor (butterfly). You took the opposite side? Or you got a magic fill?

Not a "senior" trader . . . but it seems to me you are mostly upset that you failed to correctly predict the vote. If so, this is unrelated to options per se. You essentially predicted that SPY wouldn't drop below 205 because you thought the vote would be against Brexit, and you were wrong...

Depending on expiry, looks like those puts came close to tripling in value.

Errr . . .

Futures are indicating SPY might come in just under 200, but short vol? Hmmm.

You could start by not paying attention to OptionGuru.

Yeah, I misread the original post. I thought they were the regular May puts.

You are legging into a short iron butterfly. If the underlying breaks through one of your long legs, you are guaranteed max loss (if at expiry), assuming your pricing is not so extreme that no loss is possible. (If that were the case, you probably should have just closed out the initial...

I'm sorry, it's late, I'm dense. What do you mean when you say "market value" is $45? You have a week to go, right? You need BAC to close below $13.45 at expiry to be profitable? BAC is currently $13.88, and I think you'll run into some headwinds at $13.55 or so, but it's certainly possible...

Long Put 111 Short Put 117.5 (You could also use calls for a net debit -- the bid/ask should be wider, but the tradeoff is that the long leg goes ITM before the short leg.)

I don't have the PDF in front of me. The corner strikes of the equivalent spread are the strikes of the short call and long put in your 4-leg trade. The other two legs (long call and short put at the same strike) are synthetically equivalent to long stock. Adding a short OTM call and a long...