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Good question ! It's simply neither. It's just going through congestion (on the daily chart)

So which way? Looks to me, it's developing a clear and strong uptrend. But at this time, it's going through non-dominant trend in the uptrend.

Good on you ! The pair is developing a bear trend, but it's still kinda weak. But definitely, the pair is not going up

Good on you :) Hope you have taken your profit because I don't see any strong bear trend yet, it's just going through congestion

Good on you :) Where there is will there is way but I don't see you get there until you undertake post grad research

Good try :) There was a bear trend during Asian session but it was not a strong one. Now the pair is going through congestion (correction). I would not encourage anyone to trade that pair now. Euro and GBP all going through congestion now.

You're right, on the monthly chart, the dominant trend is bearish but it's not a very strong one. On the weekly chart, it's going through congestion (correction)

I don't go to Casino Sir, gambling is prohibited in my family. But I find BlackJack more interesting Sir because if you play it in a team, there is a high probability you can win a lot ! The following movie - 21 proves it! But again, gambling is prohibited in my family T_T

Sir, Looking at the daily chart of Dow Jones Future (I don't know whether you're referring to this though), the dominant sentiment was bearish in September, but it looks like it's going through congestion (correction) now. The most recent 30 minute chart shows its most recent dominant sentiment...

It's because you're an extremely talented trader! It's simply because of that !! I feel lucky that I am just ordinary, hardworking academic researcher who don't need to go through something that extremely talented traders go through :) You should watch this - beautiful mind ! A story on a genus...

Indeed you can apply it. Out of EURUSD, USDCHF and USDJPY, which trade will outperform your opportunity cost ? 2 of them are in dominant trend in daily chart whereas one isn't. Can you pick those two ?

I couldn't agree more. By the way, say you found double top, when will you initiate your short trade? what's the most risky and what's the safest way to bring incremental cash inflow ?

Of course... by the way, how do you figure out when to exit when you are in profit or when you are in losing position?

You must be talking about the positive NPV trading ... It's good that you are trying to apply the concept from stage 1 finance paper. More realistically, you may apply to real investments. But I don't think you can apply that to trading...

I thought you have to be emotionless when you exit your trade than entering a trade. You just have to hedge your trade.

Yep, a lot of traders don't really know what the market volatility is. Only one ET member has mentioned it - Freak of Nature (he must be proud :)). Most traders only focus on market liquidity (e.g. volume) but whether you believe or not, market is driven by both market liquidity and volatility...

I am confused, all trades involve risk. But you rely on probability.

I love momo - this is just a coincidence. I work as database admin at my university and there is a student whose name is momo. She seems to be from a wealthy family, never avoid eye contact, doesn't seem to care about physical contact as she does all the time...I wish I had that kind of girl...

I understand that it's part of growing stage for beginners but once you become matured then that will no longer be the case. Triple H always finishes with pedigree, Shawn Michael finishes with sweet chin, and the market trend reverses with double bottom/top. Anyway, if the volatility is not...

Yep, any trader who are affected by psychological bias will lead to negative positions because they tend to rely more on luck.