Search results

What's their band? Is it reaching their lower band? Sorry I don't get the implication of this but I think appreciation is more concern to China than depreciation.

After I've just finished the tutorial session, I've got clearer idea about this exchange rate movement by interest rate changes. The initial reaction could be either appreciation or depreciation but the end result would be depreciation since US inflation rate has exceeded their target of 2 %...

Thanks for all your response. I am taking a tutorial session on purchasing power parity and interest rate parity this week so I did some research by reading journals posted on central banks and commercial banks. I've realised that the current inflation exceeded the target of 2 % so the hike was...

Fed reserve raised their interest rate but how on earth that US dollar could depreciate. I have read newspapers on the reaction of US dollars to its main trading partners. All I hear is some bullishit, and these reporters are just making up stories. After I had suffered from some Brexit news...

Fyi - fair enough. Technically, they are not junky because they stay just above the border. Yes, you're right. Credit rating is least important since he is doing paper trading.

I wish you all the best. Interesting stuff. I get what you're trying to do but you seem to be all over the place - fx, bond and stock etc. Just some comments here. First, you're not really analysing public info apart from just mentioning them. Second, for bond trading/investment, I'd look at...

Fear comes from uncertainty. To overcome fear, one needs to reduce that uncertainty. Once, you believe you have information to support your trading decision then the uncertainty diminishes. This is where the fundamental information steps in. A lot of traders talk about oversold and overbought...

Have you worked out its instrinsic value using some sort of dividend or free cash flow model ? It might be premature to decide their price is over valued. They have gone through really hard times in the past and they got over that so they may not be so overvalued. But I hope you are right. I...

Then do you trade when there is news like interest rate decisions? I find that unless the central bank actually changes the interest rate or when the central bank leaves the rate unchanged, I see some unpredictable price movement sometimes. Recently, Yen has shown that and I lost money because...

Thanks Zzz but I've not heard about the model you have just mentioned. In academics, we only teach inflation/interest rate and PPP model to work out the intrinsic (aka. mean price) price since price reverts back to its fundamental price eventually. Just wonder whether you could refer me to any...

Hi zzz. just wonder, hmmm, do you use some sort of PPP/inflation/interest model to work out the intrinsic value of currency pairs in hedge fund?

From Tech view, the price has not met the resistance yet. I see no sign of bearish Debt to equity is negative - implying they have excess cash Gross profit margin isn't too bad - their profit is 30% of its revenue PE has increasing trend... Domino pizza's financially healthy.

Hi bone, do you hedge your trade (by setting stop loss) when you initiate long-short positions?

Although I got your point, his opinion about dollar only has temporary impact. Unless he determines to manipulate the currency like chinese yuan, the pair will not likely to depreciate much at the current level. But who knows what could happen in the future? He imposes ban on immigrants but...

I am not sure whether the pair could depreciate to that level. What kind of bad news are you expecting? 108 level is too far away from USDJPY's intrinsic value (well , the pair has mean reverted to 112 today - the intrinsic value) since Japan's economy has been in recession for long time, you...

Pound is undervalued and expected to appreciate to 1.2585 Euro is undervalued and is expected to appreciate to 1.0845 Aud dollar is done (it's at mean price) Kiwi is overvalued and is expected to depreciate to 0.7208 Yen is overvalued and expected to depreciate to 112.29 This analysis is for...

When BOJ left its interest rate unchanged yesterday, the expected mean price of USDJPY for next 3 month is 113.35 and it is currently trading at 112.81. So it is undervalued. But again, wait until your volatility measure indicates that there is trend reversal. Well, I've learned this through...

When Euro announced the lastest interest rate, the expected mean price of EURUSD for next 3 month is 1.070 and next 6 month is 1.074. Thus, the current price is above the mean price and will expect to depreciate. But do not short it now. Short it when you detect the trend reversal, that is when...

I got stopped out. I was wrong about Japan's economy. They are in recession and has been in the situation for long time now. Yesterday Japan reported foreign investment in Japan. It was substantially negative which means both domestic and foreign investors are withdrawing their money in Japan...

Have shorted USDJPY, EURJPY, GBPJPY and AUDJPY upon Japan's inflation rate release. JPY to strengthen for now because when I checked the calendar, there was nothing in its way. So until there is any other important macro news or Trump's surprise comment, I anticipate Yen to strengthen. I also...