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I have seen what you have mentioned on one of algo trader documentary. I also look at probabilities but I use option's implied volatility to estimate whether the current price could appreciate (depreciate) above (below) a strike price. So I kinda understand what you're saying. I also look at...

Yes, In the old days. If a trader blows up then, it's their fault, they simply did not have skills but they are too egotistical to admit that. I don't look at correlation at all. Prices are not fixed, they float. It's a basic fact but 99% traders repeat the same mistake over and over and...

I agree with you ZZZ. The main objectives of QE is to stimulate the domestic economy although the end results could be improved trade balance. ZZZ, do you do spread trading (buy low and sell high using one currency pair)? or pairs trading (using multiple currency pairs) ? or both? I guess you...

No I only trade on spot but when you have a good knoweldge of market system you can create whatever you want :) I have developed hedging and spread trading which will maximise my profit and minimise my loss. Now even if market goes the opposite way, my broker pays that expense, not me anymore ...

any major pairs can be active when their current prices are substantially deviated from their intrinsic value because speculators will want to exploit such an arbitrage opportunity. But like justtrading said, yen, aussie and kiwis can be relatively more active

Today euro shows high liquidity because bid ask spread is just 1. Parity condition and relatively expensive call option (only 52% chance it will appreciate above 1.0600 though, with strike price at 1.0600) indicates that euro is likely to appreciate. So I Set a limit Long at 1.6210 Even if it...

When people talked about Elon, I thought he might a different guy. But when I watched his youtubes one impression I got from him is (although he is hard-working), he isn't inspirational like Steve jobs. The truth is all his speeches are very boring. He needs to practice and improve on his speech...

I think euro is finally appreciating. I did suffer from European opening effect but I use hedging instead of stop loss so I only suffer from the spread I set, keeping my long positions alive. But I will avoid holding positions prior to the opening from now. Thinking of it, it was unnecessary...

Before we consider French election, there is one thing that I overlooked. US will release its yearly inflation rate later today. I think this macro news will be a key event that will determine euro's final destination and I have bet on 'up' :)

I forgot about this but if euro is on the way to appreciate as I expected, I think it will converge to 1.0773 within next week. It's because usually, when there is an election, price depreciates due to the uncertainty in the politics. So euro needs to appreciate before it could depreciate. Just...

Sorry, but I only spend time on things I am interested in . COT is weekly. Although you may get an idea of which side (long or short) that more informed traders are on , they only reflect the past information. But past info could be still useful because a trend could continue because either...

You are very naughty because I am very busy now. I will do this once and will not answer to any other question because this isn't a topic I am interested in discussing. On March 21, the number of total contracts decreased substantially. I don't know what happened to US economy. Shrunk...

Looks like Euro is going through congestion. It will probably wake up upon the opening of the European session. We have roughly 7 hours left before we can find out euro's next movement. Whether it's down or up, I think the next movement will be volatile. It's been a while since we had an active...

Yes I am currently investigating the efficient price of stock indice, bond, fx and commodity using 6 billion trade transactions and I teach corporate finance as well as international finance at a University. I don't trade Stock indice but I will check the morning star to see if they provide the...

Are you sure, swim?? I thought European session's downmove was pullback... Euro's intrinsic value is 1.0773 and all other major currencies including canadian dollar have converged to their intrinsic value. Only currency that has underperformed was euro and yesterday's huge upmove was the uptrend...

Pound, yen, aussie and kiwi are at their intrinsic value. So unless they deviate substantially from their current price, I will wait. Only euro is undervalued. I think their intrinsic value is around 1.0773 and the current price will rise from today again after the pullback yesterday. I think...

95% retail traders don't make money. In other words, it's statstically proven. This acceptable level of risk is very abstract. A lot of traders fail here. Successful traders not only knows the intrinsic value of an asset (as well as the direction of the current trend) but also knows how to...

Well according to morning star Fair Value Estimate - 197 USD Consider Buy - 98.5 USD Consider Sell - 344.75 USD Bulls Say • Tesla has the potential to change the world with long-range EV technology and battery technology that can store solar energy that its products generate. • The cost...

The Call option is relatively expensive than the put option suggesting that market is expecting the price to rise above the strike price of $23. By the way, Van do you trade call and put options at IB?

so Amazon bought call option on PLUG after all...this is cool. This is the first time, I actually hear a company buys options