ajensen, I saw in another thread you posted this:
"Regular trading in VIX futures ends at 4:15pm EST, 15 minutes later than for ETFs, so if futures prices move in that time, the returns measured from yesterday's close will differ for futures and ETFs."
Could this explain the issue? VIX...
I follow you in part ajensen - if TVIX got too big versus the total futures market its buying/selling behavior could influence said market, compounding problems potentially. In your example where VIX futures are already down, however, shouldn't XIV/SVXY have started up, with TVIX buying...
ET180, what is the time decay present in VXX that is not present in trading spreads on the VIX? My understanding (consistent with Maverick's explanation) is that whenever there is "contango", both the VIX long ETFs and a long spread in the underlying VIX options would both suffer drag over...
Ajensen, you also made this comment, which seems very interesting:
"VXX is not leveraged, so I don't think it has the same risks as XIV, SVXY, or TVIX."
In what sense is it not leveraged, and not subject to the same risks, as the other ones?
Thanks!
I think I follow you beerntrades, I understand how there is no "VIX" per se, only futures and options on it. So I follow you that they could move far from their underlying. Let me throw this out there. I've been watching XIV and SVXY on the one hand, and UVXY and TVIX on the other hand, for a...
Thanks ajensen! I'm trying to think through your post.
"When the underlying rises, it must buy back some shorts to prevent the exposure from being more negative than -100%. I think XIV and SVXY were crushed because their own anticipated buying demand for VIX futures pushed the VIX futures to...
Sorry Maverick, I left out the word "futures". VIX short term futures index (you can see it referenced here https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TVIX?p=TVIX in the fund summary on the right). Got you on cash VIX having no relationship to the VIX futures until settlement.
Thanks!
Thanks beerntrading! I follow you. What I was trying to get at with this question is really what I am asking Maverick when I said:
"So, let's look at today. First question is, what did the S&P VIX short-term futures index do today? Is that reported anywhere? I'm having a hard time finding it...
Thanks Maverick. On that page, I see a link to a pricing page, and on that page I see VIX futures, but I'm not seeing the price of the VIX short-term index off hand - am I just missing it?
Thanks!
Thanks Maverick. I've got excel - what else might I need to test various price shocks on these things?
What's still throwing me for a loop is when I read just the general summary (off yahoo finance) of say SVXY and XIV on the one hand, and UVXY and TVIX on the other hand (along with others)...
Maverick74 (and beerntrading), thanks a TON. I understand what you are saying. So let me ask you this. For UVXY and TVXS, is there any "implicit bet" that would drive the price of those either to actually zero, or potentially to infinity? Thanks!
By the way, any volatility related ETFs you...
Saw that as well stevenpaul. VXX up when it should be down, XIV and SVXY waaaaay down when they should be waaaaay up. Compare VXX with VIIX, which was actually down a bit. Freaking weird.
Thanks Maverick74. Then why are they shutting down XIV? And I read last night that holders of both XIV and SVXY might get nothing as they were going to liquidate. There certainly seems to be some malfunction. VIX today was down 92%. UVXY was down 33%. TVIX 40%. In that environment you...
I realize that being long UVXY/TVIX is bad in the long term, given that they will always fall given enough time, and that shorting them is extremely risky given that they can skyrocket at any time.
But I'm curious - can they essentially "malfunction" like XIV and SVXY did? Like can they go to...
The problem is I think you are forgetting one thing. Because it is euro exercise, a VIX call option might have a LESSER value the longer the expiration date pushes out. This is becuase (i) the contango effect, (ii) if the VIX is high, the expectation that it will revert down to its mean, and...
Interesting. So to sum up the point you think I am missing - my VIX options will likely suffer the "contango" same or similar losses over time as my XIV, so if I'm "100% hedged", those losses might very well offset any gain in my XIV from the contango. But, at the end of the day, if VIX cash...