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One interesting thing is that in the recent past, EUR.USD moved in the same direction with the US stock indexes. Today appears to have marked a structural change in that relationship.

I love the smell of crash the morning!

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Is there evidence that the first two and the last two hours of trading are less noisy?

Was looking for a full house on the river, but was left with two pairs. So, I am flat ES, with a P&L of about zero for the day.

The turn card card has been dealt, so I added to my long position at 1528.25.

The hand has been played. The rally will go full blast in about 45 seconds.

Poker game goes on. I am long from ES 1526.5. This big drop today is just a bluff.

Do you mean to say that risk of holding tech stocks in 2000 was there until 2006, and then it magically disappeared?

I'll give you a credit on the direction of today's call, although you were still off by 9 ES points. Tomorrow is the ultimate test! Predictions are due by 2:15pm EST!

No clear winner on the SPX/ES/Dow. I'll take the medal for my EUR.USD prediction: it was within 1 pip of the actual price as of 4pm EST. Never underestimate the power of a coin toss! No, wait, it was a signal of the system that I've been running profitably for the last 15 years.

S&P cash: 1539.84 EUR.USD spot: 1.4434

I don't understand. What makes you think that making money on choppy days is more difficult than making money on trendy days? You seem to think that "trading" is the same as "betting on a trend to continue".

I understand that. What I am trying to do is to figure out is the theory. According to the detective's post above and the web references, in interest rate parity, high-yielding currencies should depreciate. But according to your statement, and in all my experience, it's actually the opposite...

I looked it up at several web sites, and this is indeed what they say. But it doesn't make any sense to me. If two currencies A and B have the same interest rate, and then the interest rate for currency A goes up, wouldn't investors bid up currency A because it just became more attractive? I...

Suppose we have to currencies, X and Y, and the rate of exchange between the two is R. Assume that everything is balanced, the rate is fair. On a given day, the central bank of currency X (unexpectedly) cuts the discount rate from 5.25% to 5%. Assuming everything else stays the same, by how much...

I am not sure. What's the formula for interest rate parity? Maybe I am not doing it quite right, but here is what I figured: 1. Right after the last cut on Sep 18, the EUR.USD settled at around 1.3975 2. If the Fed cuts another 25bps, that would represent a 4.762% drop in discount rate...

S&P: 1549.87 This might be better fun is someone tallies the tracking results to see if someone is consistently lucky.

As if everyone knows what to do on any other day.

My favorite setup emerged. Shorted more ES at 1525.75.