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Recently I started playing earning with backspreads. Two examples: Bought PCLN backspread (sold 1 240 call, bought 2 250 calls) one day before earnings when PCLN was at $233. The cost was $1.75. PCLN moved 18% after earnings, the backspread was sold for $16 – 814% return on debit and 212%...

Actually I think in this case Manny might be able to provide those statements if he wanted to. HIS performance would be not bad since his subscribers help to move his picks. HE will be able in most cases to have a profit, but you cannot say the same about his subscribers.

I took the free trial to see what it is. The site is run by Manny Backus, who was already shut down once by SEC -...

How is it related to my question?

If you want to buy an option and there is no seller, the market maker has to provide liquidity sell it to you. So if the transaction was at ask or close to it, that means it was bought and vice versa.

You mean bid or ask? This is exactly what I want to find out. If it is at ask, then it was bought, and the opposite. I see big activity on ID Sep options - 10 calls and 7.5 puts. Looking at Sep 10 calls volume and open interest, I see it is exactly half the volume of puts. Looks like...

How can I know if the option is bought or sold?

Update: I must say that the results are actually pretty good. The fact that he doesn’t give the exit instructions might be actually an advantage. It makes you think and learn. You cannot rely on someone else all your life. The average gain is about 14% per trade so far, based on 37 trades...

There are no guarantees in trading. it's not a guarantee, it's a statistical advantage. Nobody can guarantee you it will work in 100% of weeks, but 70-80% of cases should be good enough assuming the data is correct.

I was referring to the statement: “Options Expo has a tendency to be much more volatile. That means the std deviation is higher. If you take that into account, and apply it to the average returns, my bet is that the difference in returns is not statisticallysignificant. You get higher...

Same strategy can be applied to index options. The principle is to buy calls on Friday before expiration and hold 1-3 days, to take advantage on statistical bullishness of the expiration week.

I was actually talking about expiration week, not day. Sometimes it is more volatile, but I’m not sure this is correct in general. In order to compensate for 4 times larger returns during expiration week, IV should be REALLY high.

I found the following interesting article: http://www.cxoadvisory.com/calendar-effects/option-expiration-week-stock-return-drill-down/ Summary: The average weekly return of 28 large-cap stocks with actively traded options during option expiration week (other weeks) is 0.45% (0.12%) over the...

Could you show me another service that achieved 111% in 2008 and 112% in 2009 (non compounded) with similar level of risk?

When I was a subscriber, my commissions were about 1% from the invested capital, so the net results should be reduced by 1% per month. I'm using IB and paying 70 cents per contract, I can assume that on average it might be slightly higher with most other brokers but still around 1.5-2%. You...

I just found this old thread and wanted to share my experience. The newsletter posted results: 2007 May +22.3%; Jun +33.5% Jul +32.7%; Aug +17.9% Sep +6.9%; Oct,+57.3% Nov +17.1%; Dec- Chill Out 2008 Jan +14.8%; Feb +11.6% Mar+16.5%; Apr +9.2% May +3.9%; Jun +12.7% Jul...

I know that IB Web Trader has issues even at normal days, but IB workstation was fully functional.

What’s your point? You suggest that people should not share their experiences? Once TOS will have their commissions under $1 per contract, there is no question I will transfer my account.

Does someone still take CNBC options “gurus” seriously? Let me give you an example how those guys present their trades. On Friday March 26, CNBC Option Action suggested the following bullish risk reversal when Oracle (ORCL) was trading at $25.25. - Sell to open June $23 puts for $0.55...

Yes, many times people forget that. In most cases I'm able to get filled around 10-15 cents above the mark, which would translate to 1-1.5 cents on SPY. The commissions savings are huge.