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As you have tried so many systems and patterns, it must be that you haven't decided what you need to find. Your search will continue for ever until you decide that. There are basically only two strategies - follow or fade - i.e. following the trend or trading the reversal. Trend-following...

No problem Bugsy. Your concern highlights one of the issues when trading stocks - each one on its own is much more liable to surprises than an index in which its one of 30 or 100 or 500. One reason why stock traders often specialise in a sector (like you have) - there's a lot of nuance to keep...

Buy-outs in a sector tend to come in series. As long as yours isn't the first in line you might get some early warning as larger players in the sector start re-positioning and reacting to what competitors are doing. Even if larger players in the sector start accumulating cash not dedicated to...

Sounds like a trend-following strategy. I love to follow one of these, but using the 20 and 50EMAs instead of the 10 and 40SMA's, so little real difference, except I only trade longer term. But if this is a similar approach I will still be interested to see how it plays out.

Get into long-term trading. Check your charts after the close, set your orders with stop-loss for each, then go to sleep, then go to work and do the job, then find out what happened tomorrow night. Trading will not suddenly become easier if you lose the job and still have to pay the bills. The...

I'm not a maths expert, calculation as such doesn't come into my trading style much but I can definitely say its good to understand percentages and decimals. Probability theory is interesting too, as all trading is a probability problem in the end: there has to be a possibility of being...

Yes, some still occur out of the blue. Of the 20 worst daily price falls on the Dow since 1900, only 4 came in like that, the other 16 came out of bearish patterns, by which time no trader should have still been long. So the risk of being caught out is reduced by a factor of 5. I do call that...

I don't accept that downside protection is the ONLY risk management for a crash. I have been busily posting elsewhere that most price-negative Black Swans come out of a bear pattern, not out of a clear cloudless blue sky in a bull market. October 1987 follows the pattern, and the two essential...

Here is a further study of the 20 worst 1-day price falls in the Dow since 1900. The object is to establish – “Would a trader have avoided these events by exiting long positions when price closed below the 50EMA and/or the 20EMA crossed below the 50EMA?” 19/10/1987: -22.6%: Yes 14/12/1914...

What I'm saying is that the most significant price falls occur when price is already falling, as demonstrated by the location of price and the 20EMA below the 50EMA. Therefore, in order to avoid serious loss from a price fall Black Swan, don't be long when the market is bearish. Step two would...

I agree on that, real time calls are not the be-all end-all test of a trader. What's important is why the trade was made, and why the stop was placed where it was.

Wikipedia carries a handy list of the worst stock market crashes and bear markets in Europe and United States (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_stock_market_crashes_and_bear_markets). Looking at the Dow, would getting out of Dow longs have been indicated prior to these events by a 20/50EMA...

There have to be other factors that would influence whether you go short after seeing a 20/50EMA dead cross. It cannot be an automatic reaction. But the real point is, if you had taken that pattern as a signal to get out of a long position, you would have avoided most of the most notorious...

!?!

There's really no need to adapt a trading strategy continuously. Price will either rise or fall and its surely easy to decide what you will do in each case. This being so, what's the advantage of a mechanical model?

I also would certainly hope that newcomers do not take technical indicators at face value: I'm on record as stating I never use any off-chart indicators. But if they're unfamiliar with TA, what makes you think they'll find their way to these parameters, or the right parameters. What are you...

Nobody can disagree with this, as nobody knows what you're talking about. What will be the successful conclusion of this thread?

This is all rather painful isn't it? Like when children say, "I know something you don't know. And I'm not going to tell you what it is, you'll just have to guess." Kind of like, "I spy with my little eye, something beginning with P".

Absolutely, I want to demonstrate a point about Black Swans, not about data-mining. Look at the top 20 daily falls recorded on the Dow. The majority occurred when price and the 20EMA were below the 50.

You forgot Auric Goldfinger and Ernst Blofeld.