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The obvious answer is to buy vol. However it can go lower, also it can stay around these levels for some time in which case theta would eat you up.

Personally I trade ES, NQ, TF. ES has decent volume, and very good fills, often better than midpoint. NQ a bit less volume but also very good fills. TF is awful on volume and fills, better to trade RUT but no SPAN margin on that one.

There is no way to know if your formula is correct because it contains references to cells in your sheet. What is C3, C7 etc? Also, VIX is not the correct measure of IV. It's separate per option.

Rolling just means closing out the current trade and opening one further out. The cost of the roll obviously depends on the price differences. But there is no way the cost to roll is "just pennies", unless you're talking about comission only.

We're talking about a stock market crash, not us govt default. us govt is the de facto safe haven

The educational industrial complex at work :)

My RR comment was just meant to point out that probabilities need to be paid attention to when establishing RR, not wheter or not the probabilities are correct...for example I'd easily take a 1:100RR trade 1000x / month if I knew for certain the probs were 1:200 every time. But as you said, this...

The whole point of the skew is to make up for the fact that OTM options have paid off far more often than norm distribution would predict. Skew exists because fat tails exist. Wheter or not it's overstated, the only way to determine this is looking at historical data. And most historical data...

Black-Scholes are based on assumptions of risk neutrality. The skew really shows the model has a flaw, because markets are not normally distributed and IV skew makes up for fat tail risk. The delta (dual delta) is the correct measure of probability as per the markets current belief, but I agree...

This is true. I like to substitute ICs for double calendars if IV is low, as they are less short vol than an IC. As for risk / reward....even 100:1 can be considered a good RR if the probabilities are below. looking at RR without probabilities is pointless.

Just a thought on GARCH forecasts, they are inferior to IV in predicting future realized, so probably not of much use. There is some paper on it somewhere.

Yes, I trade them from my IB acct. Not aware of any other US brokers with access to EU mkts

Testicles in a jar

EOE index bro, Amsterdam exchange. I trade there every day, great liquidity, great volume and often better than midpoint fills. One of my fav instruments.

5000% return in 7 weeks huh? Wish I could punch you in the face. BTW I used to subscribe to this guys newsletter, he's full of crap. The indicator is just some random off the shelf indicator and the returns are false.

Usually the 10% of the times they don't expire worthless hurts you. The old saying eat like a chicken shit like an elephant comes to mind. That being said, yes you can get out of contracts anytime you want. Just buy them back from the market.

Who cares bro, the whole industry is rotten to the bone anyway. If you think a series 7 or CFA somehow makes a difference morally you're dead on wrong. These people will make advise according to how much money they can make from that advise, period. Forums on the other hand work like a gift...

If you're comfortable owning the shares at the put price, then do that and write calls against them

Sure, there's always room for some retracement, but not neccessarily 20%. September seems to be one of the worst performing months over the last 20-50 years. Then it usually picks up steam approaching year end.

Well, nobody knows for sure. But it's my belief that people fear these "corrections" more often than they occur. You know what they say, economists have predicted 9 out of the last 5 recessions. If the market understated it, it would make sense to buy a "positve" edge lottery ticket with FOTM...