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Yes.

(Using Van Tharp's definition of Expectancy.) Expectancy is dependent upon current VIX value: [Bull Market, 1995 to early 2000 / early 2003 to 2007 / mid 2009 to present time] Normal VIX range is 10-14 most of the time in a Bull Market. Expectancy=1R or slightly >. Medium High VIX of 15-19 a...

Hi Mark, What I do for entries is semi complicated: (sorry, but its a lengthy answer) 1: I have a math based computer program that outputs the entry price's for 6 different trading formula's that encompass anywhere from simple math based trend following formula's, to algo formula's, to...

Hi Smallfil, With regards to letting the winners run, the single biggest discovery that I have made in over 2 decades of directional option trading is this (Note: I only do thing with uptrending VIX 15 or greater above its 200 day moving average): Hi Volatility Trading (usually associated...

Hi Bob, this Time and Sales Report is incomplete, its useless. Interactive Broker's Trader Work Station provides free live T & S reports every 1 second, that also include the Bid Price and Ask Price when options are bought or sold. Example: If you see a Time: 11:11:54, "20,000 calls at 2.00,"...

This chart explains why the Fed must Normalize the Fed lending rate. Notice that prior to the 2008 Financial Crisis, the Fed Balance Sheet was carrying less than 1 trillion dollars of debt obligations. Since the 2008 Crisis, the Balance Sheet debt obligations gradually picked up 4.5...

"This market is based on the false premise that borrowing money from the Fed should be free!" Then the market invests or loans that free money at a fairly high interest rate and makes a large profit. Question: "What the Hell kind of business model is that?" That kind of business model requires...

For yesterday's rally to continue, the SP500 needs to stay above the 400ma (purple line) micro trend by the close today. So far, its bounced off the convergence of Pivot Point S1 (red line, Support 1) and the 400ma (purple line, 5 minute candles) micro trend line. [SP500, 2 days, 5 minute...

"I hate every single minute of trading! I don't trade because I like it, I trade because I have no other choice." 20 + years is just too long to still being doing this! I am older with high blood pressure and heart problems, and its extremely difficult to watch the up and down undulations...

I would find it difficult to believe the Dow 30 and NDX don't have some sort of bounce from today's closing chart setup on both: Bounced off the 200ma (closed above), RSI dropped below 30 and starting to hook back up. Dow 30: 50% retracement from the October High of 26,900 to Oct Low of 25,000...

The SP500 chart below gives the reason for exiting with the 40 month moving average as opposed to the 20 month moving average. (1) Previously I used the SP500's 20 month average until this fake-out happened: On the closing month candle for September 2011 (9th dark candle in Sep-2007, chart...

Correlation between the SP500 and VIX charts with 2 days, 5 minute candles, 400ma, Pivot Points. The front month OTM SPY call and put options that I trade have been mostly negative for both calls and puts with only minor gains during spikes all day due to the implied volatility changes. [SP500...

In the beginning we tried shorter time frame changes with 401k's, but each change had commissions attached. That is ok with a trading account, but with the larger amounts in a 401k it proved too costly. Also as time went on, our employer got tired of employee's day trading their 401k's, so they...

From a micro trend point of view, the SP500 has a lot of overhead resistance levels: on the Pivot Points you have R1 (purple line) and R2 (blue line) and then the most important resistance level is the 400ma (top grey line). We are also battling Volatility Implosion on the option values as the...

I am a long term investor only for my retirement accounts and this has worked every time since around 1995. I simply exit stock funds in 401k's when a monthly SP500 candle closes below the 40 month MA and put the money in a Stable Value Fund (government backed bonds) until the monthly candle...

Before anyone panics, let me show you a good charting technique that I have used for decades to prevent moving my long term 401k assets out of stocks for no good reason, other than panic. Below is a long term chart of the SP500, time frame: 1994 to present day (24 years). The candles are monthly...

And there it is! The SP500 touching the its 200 day moving average. Will it bounce off it? or break down through it? [SP500, 1 month, daily candles, 200ma (blue line)]

You have to remember that stock valuations are based on formula's that mutual funds and institutional investors have to determine the fair value prices of companies. That formula is partially based on the cost of borrowing money. So as interest rates go up, it reduces the fair value of stock...

SP500 is down approximately -5% since the October 3, 2018 high of 2,940 to today's close of 2,785. This drop has occurred in 4 trading days. The SP500 dropped -10% in 10 days from the Jan 2018 high to the Feb 2018 low and took 7 months to get back up to the Jan 2018 high. A good...

Market downturns are where you can make the most amount of money quickly! A market participant should be unbiased: Market Up Trending, Long Positions. Market Down Trending: Short Positions. "But, the market goes down a lot quicker than it goes up." Recent SP500 Example: From its January 2018...