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The attached 5 year chart of the VIX (with monthly candles) is an interesting way to look at volatility. It appears that whenever the VIX drops to 15 for a month or two, it then starts to head back up. I wouldn't read too much into this, but if nothing else its at least a little interesting.

at109, Here is this evenings computer program output for trading tomorrow. Under System Outputs it lists Numbers 1 through 6. Each number represents a trading system that has been developed, tested and traded. Here is the number of years each system has been around and the reliability...

Ok, will do. That's what I have been trading from July 2007 to early March 2012. The W/L ratio started at 75% but each year it has dropped roughly 1% to its current 70%. I suspect its performance will actually go up from here as the market becomes more neutral to trade (as opposed to the...

________________________________________ I sold the calls at 1.45 in the last half hour as I watched the 5 minute SPY charts going bad. This new call biased mechanical system is simply no longer working well enough for me to continue on with cash trades. Its officially on the shelf!

atticus, Your statement is very well put and I fully agree with it. I've seen you offer good solid trades and they are totally ignored. Your definitely one of the most in-tune market participants on ET. Also, I post my own real time trades (minutes after execution..entry, exit...

rockn, "Those are frightening prices on GOOG and AAPL!" I can remember in the 1990's paying $1,600 for EBAY options and at the time I thought that I was out of my mind! I also remember closing them out at $550 and being happy to get that. Since the 1990's, I now think small. SPY...

I'm in an option trade from the new system: SPY May 140 calls Bought: 1.37 (filled) Sell Limit 1.78 (30%) Stop: 1.13

I am attempting to get into this new system trade: SPY May 140 calls: Buy Limit: 1.35 (not filled yet) Sell Limit: 1.75 (+30%) Stop: 1.00 Reward to Risk: 1.14 to 1.00 Win: + .40 Loss: -.35 With my new plan of trading both the new system and the old system, the signals are...

Quote from jeffalvinson: 04-12-12 08:46 AM I entered a mechanical system (system from 2007) trade today: SPY May 135 puts Buy No. 1: 1.78 (filled) Sell Limit: 2.25 but if tanks before sell limit then Buy No. 2: 1.40 if fills, sell all at 1.95 Stop..........1.30...

__________________________________________________ Moved my Stop to 1.95, not holding puts over the weekend.

I entered a mechanical system (system from 2007) trade today: SPY May 135 puts Buy No. 1: 1.78 (filled) Sell Limit: 2.25 but if tanks before sell limit then Buy No. 2: 1.40 if fills, sell all at 1.95 Stop..........1.30 Reward to Risk: 1.24 to 1 Reward: .17 + .55 = + .72 Risk...

"Thank you, I appreciate that, it made me feel a little better." I think you were the one to mention that the back-tested results had not seen enough different trends in a larger time span. That was an understatement.

atticus, Your right as usual. I didn't even buy the hit-rate on the new system! As an example of paper back-testing vs reality: My old system had a paper back-tested hit rate of 92% from July 1, 2006 to June 30, 2007. However, when we started to do the actual forward tested...

My new system is basically turning to shit! I just completed by first 10 actual cash trades. I have separated those 10 trades from the prior back-tested trades and entered them on a new attached excel. I can only say that having a bullishly biased mechanical trading system kills you...

I am in a new system trade today: SPY April 138 calls (SPY120421C00138000) Buy Limit: 1.54 (filled) Sell Limit: 2.10 (+36%) Stop:...... 1.17 (-24%) Reward / Risk: 1.51 to 1 (+ .56 win / -.37 loss) "I am going to have to go out and run some errands because I really hate...

Falcon, Take a look at the attached QQQ chart. Even if Monday April 9, 2012 opens lower, I don't see anything lower than 67.0 for the Q's. If that happens and your QQQ calls are substantially lower ( -20% or greater ) then what you paid for them, buy the same amount again and sell...

____________________________________________________ I wasn't comfortable holding this many contracts over a 3 day weekend with so little time left before expiration on OTM options so I bailed at 1.40 in the latter part of the day. ( see attached updated excel results Its a shame...

Iceman, When a position is going profitable: What triggers the closing of your open positions? Is it an overall profit goal figure your looking for? or is it time? When a position is going bad with too much overall draw-down: what level of loss causes you to close that position...

Falcon, You are saying the VIX low and market in doldrum situation: Here is the QQQ April 67 calls (exp: 4/20/2012) so far today: Open = 0.97 High= 1.30 (+34%) That's > +30% profit with the QQQ up only .65%! That's a decent gain.

Falcon, 1: It probably wasn't a good idea of having a 2/1 reward to risk today, this being the last trading day of the week before a 3 day holiday weekend (which I overlooked in my planning the trade). Had I used my Standard +30% profit goal on the SPY April 140 calls bought at 1.25...