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  1. I

    EUR will skyrocket this afternoon

    Looks like closing out my short was a bad idea. I reopened it in the 1.328s. I knew I should've sold some in the 1.332s; the downward trend was looking obvious - I hesitated for a few minutes and it cost me ~40 pips.
  2. I

    EUR will skyrocket this afternoon

    NiN, it'll eventually kill the EUR. I'm reading more articles indicating that's the inevitable path. In the very short term though, PIIGS bond spreads came in a bit on Friday after coming in significantly on Thursday. I felt that the risk of a large gap up this weekend was too great to...
  3. I

    EUR will skyrocket this afternoon

    I completely closed out my EUR short going into the weekend. It's getting close to the point where they need to give Greece some money and I think that there's more chance of a positive surprise this weekend than a negative one. I'd like to see the EUR pop for a week or two and then reshort it.
  4. I

    EUR will skyrocket this afternoon

    Clambill, I stopped trading in the stock market because it's well beyond sane levels. The PE ratios are nuts. The market's setting up for another Oct 19 1987 Black Monday. I'm staying away from the markets both long and short. The currency markets are much more liquid and transparent...
  5. I

    EUR will skyrocket this afternoon

    BOOM! What's the next major support level? 1.25?
  6. I

    let's assume Germans won't bail out

    I'm not comfortable with RUB; the other currencies are on my short list along with CLP.
  7. I

    EUR will skyrocket this afternoon

    Considering the way that PIIGS' bonds are being priced, I would expect the EUR to be sinking like a stone. Something tells me that there's a bit of central bank intervention to keep it aloft.
  8. I

    EUR will skyrocket this afternoon

    NiN, the PIIG missing now is Italy: Greek 2 year >13% 2 year Portugal bonds +70 bps to 3.56 2 year Ireland bonds +66 bps to 2.83 2 year Spain bonds +20 bps to 1.86 Those are some big moves, even the Spain move.
  9. I

    EUR will skyrocket this afternoon

    Greek bond spreads blew up on the European open this morning. And Irish bonds are taking collateral damage. Flight to quality as German bund yield is dropping.
  10. I

    EUR will skyrocket this afternoon

    For the housing price collapse, I started shorting several big mortgage players in Spring 2007 - it was just a little bit early but not by much. When I saw several high flying mortgage originators go belly up, I knew that it was near the end game for housing. I had been leery of housing since...
  11. I

    EUR will skyrocket this afternoon

    I don't know if I'd call it a short squeeze; more of a short covering rally. That'd be the way that I would read the last two bounces off of the bottom - short covering rallies. I had expected some short covering yesterday (there was/still is a lot of profits on the table) and the formal Greek...
  12. I

    EUR will skyrocket this afternoon

    OPA!! http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=opa
  13. I

    EUR will skyrocket this afternoon

    Interesting read on it. I assume that the two critical levels would then be 1.36 (above would be bullish) and 1.3275 (below would be bearish)? Also, interesting interpretation of the bottoms. The last two bottoms formed based on external news of a Greek bailout. I can't remember the the...
  14. I

    EUR will skyrocket this afternoon

    Clambill, this Greek bailout is a Pandora's Box full of very bad consequences - most of which have not been accounted for in the marketplace yet. Here's one possible outcome...
  15. I

    EUR will skyrocket this afternoon

    Uh, all the news from here forward is bad. Unless they announce that EMU scientists have found out how to turn lead into gold. What positive announcement do you think they could come up with? Here's a sign of things to come: http://online.barrons.com/article/SB127193332870480995.html
  16. I

    EUR will skyrocket this afternoon

    I covered that piece of my EUR short. It's now guaranteed to gap down Sunday night.
  17. I

    EUR will skyrocket this afternoon

    Very nice call on your long. I'm impressed with today's rally; I fully expected it to fade by this time of day and close in the mid-1.32s. I was way wrong on that expectation. The problem with the short Euro trade is that it's getting pretty crowded and it doesn't take much to set off a...
  18. I

    EUR will skyrocket this afternoon

    Jax, that was less than 140 pips trough to peak on the rumor then confirmation of Greece making a formal loan request of the IMF and EU. And it's burning off quickly. This weekend is setting up for a gap down due to the fireworks about to begin in the European political world.
  19. I

    EUR will skyrocket this afternoon

    Clambill, In Dec, I went short both EUR and GBP against USD. I closed the GBP short as the Dubai problems faded into the background. I expect the GBP to start imploding in a while and am patiently waiting to reshort it. I don't think that anything's gotten better in the UK but things are...
  20. I

    EUR will skyrocket this afternoon

    NiN, I've caught falling knives before. Anyone remember 3DFx? Ticker TDFX; I rode that one into chap 7, adding to my position all the way down. It gave me cap loss writeoffs for several years. I'd comment on the Greek bonds blowing out along with the Moody's rating cuts today of Greek and...
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