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  1. Real Money

    So how deep the recession will be?

    Apple Temporarily Closes Retail Stores Worldwide to Fight Coronavirus https://time.com/5803159/apple-store-closed-coronavirus/ Closing all retail stores globally for 2 weeks.......wow.
  2. Real Money

    So how deep the recession will be?

    Low resolution thinking....right. You keep talking deaths in the midst of unprecedented economic measures that only have historic precedent during war times. Trump banned travel from UK, EU, and Ireland to the United States. You were dead wrong when you called a collapse in the forward...
  3. Real Money

    So how deep the recession will be?

    I agree. The bubble economy is the bane of millenials and gen-Z, hell even gen-X. If it collapses they will actually be much better off. Of course, the boomers and gov would lose. Read this story of what happened in Japan. It is earily similar to what is happening here....
  4. Real Money

    So how deep the recession will be?

    The boomers are the ones who are really scared. This is their worst nightmare. The timing could not be worse. Interesting that they make nearly all gov decisions.... A few potential outcomes.... Ultimately, the real risk is deflation. Deflation is the US worst nightmare. Equity sell off...
  5. Real Money

    SP500 back to $3300 by end of month

    "...views of the virus 'have evolved dramatically in recent weeks' as the outbreak has spread further around the world and fueled the worst stock-market sell-offs in decades, the bank's economists wrote..." The US economy could shrink by 2% in the first quarter and 3% in the second, JPMorgan...
  6. Real Money

    Credit Crunch 2.0

    Lifelines Fray for Companies Close to Brink Before Meltdown Eliza Ronalds-Hannon and Katherine Doherty (Bloomberg) -- As credit markets around the world sputter and seize, distressed companies are watching financial lifelines that they were counting upon slip from their grasp. Rescue deals...
  7. Real Money

    Nightmare on Wall Street Was All About Liquidity

    Ian Burdette stared at his computer screens on Thursday afternoon in New York and could hardly believe his eyes. Everywhere that the head of term-rates trading at Academy Securities Inc. looked, there were massive anomalies and signs of unprecedented stresses in markets. Ultra Long Term U.S...
  8. Real Money

    Neutral Trading Strategies don't work in these markets

    The only thing with any depth is the ten year. Rate futures that used to have >20 lot on the bid and offer are 4-5 ticks wide. It's unbelievable. The ES book is really thin and the other indices are illiquid as fuck. Market is nearly unrecognizable...
  9. Real Money

    Is the Fed fighting a credit markets freeze up?

    No. The problem is that before the virus selling, the treasury yields (for many years) were relatively stable. It was an 'easy money' risk-on environment. It benefited banks because they can repackage loans and sell them to hedge funds and institutions as long as they are rated investment...
  10. Real Money

    Is the Fed fighting a credit markets freeze up?

    Hey bro, the Fed is panicking because the corporate debt market is imploding. Federal Reserve Bank of Boston President Eric Rosengren said on Friday the U.S. central bank may need the power to buy a broader array of bonds to provide stimulus given the sharp and historic decline in Treasury...
  11. Real Money

    Credit Crunch 2.0

    Wall Street Stressed About Corporate Bonds As Coronavirus Crisis Mounts https://www.investmentnews.com/market-slide-puts-focus-on-companies-balance-sheets-189722 “Our estimate is that there is potentially as much as a trillion dollars of high-grade bonds heading to junk,” he writes in a...
  12. Real Money

    Credit Crunch 2.0

    Federal Reserve Bank of Boston President Eric Rosengren said on Friday the U.S. central bank may need the power to buy a broader array of bonds to provide stimulus given the sharp and historic decline in Treasury yields amid the coronavirus outbreak. Just thinking back to the last financial...
  13. Real Money

    Risk off March 2020

    Europe Futures Collapse 8%; U.S. Yields Cratering: Markets Wrap https://www.bloomberg.com/markets 10-year Treasury yield below 0.5% 30-year yield drops under 1% Crude plummets over 30% (largest slide since Gulf War 1991)
  14. Real Money

    Risk off March 2020

    FTSE and DAX deep in the red, Nikkei trading below 20,000 and US indices limit down!
  15. Real Money

    The Stock Market Is Dropping Again. How to Spot a Bottom.

    Crude is getting hammered from a collapse in demand. Saudi's starting a price war. Travel destinations shut down. No one is going to be traveling. Mass quarantines, border closures, outright panic, airline revenue collapsing, tourism industry routed. Global equity markets cannot bounce back...
  16. Real Money

    Trading is easy

    Dozu, on the one hand I love how bullish you are, it's hilarious. But, it's starting to get real bro. Headline risk is coming fast and furious now..... Coronavirus: Northern Italy quarantines 16 million people [1] Frustration mounts over virus-stalled ship in California [2] New York...
  17. Real Money

    Robinhood Outage All Day

    Indeed. TWS is the story of a pursuit of software functionality so ambitious, that it borders on hubris. The actual realized functionalities however, fall far short of that ambition. There is TWS the dream, and then there is the intractability of a legacy code base. I can only imagine...
  18. Real Money

    Dealer Gamma (Institutional Options Market Making)

    I don't really use anything except basis spreads, rate spreads, and index spreads. This is all an effort to see what the size players are doing. It is very obvious to me that the BD guys are running the show in the bond spreads, and therefore in the basis. This makes sense because they have...
  19. Real Money

    Boston Fed's Rosengren Says Fed May Soon Have To Buy Stocks

    What a joke.... Global central banks engage in a regime of systematic suppression of sovereign debt yields, forcing savers into risk assets under the auspices of promoting competitive growth. The trade gets crowded. Then, inevitably, the assets are repriced in the face of emergent risk. The...
  20. Real Money

    Buffet sells way out of the money puts

    I've also heard him say that he is reluctant to buy airlines, even when attractive. I remember him saying something like "usually when I start looking at airlines......well, I probably shouldn't be looking at airlines."
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