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stiglitz hates bush and is grandstanding. the cost of the war is not going to bankrupt the country. our economy is large enough to pay for it. whether or not is was a good idea is something else altogether.

there is nothing wrong with borrowing if you pay it back. just like there is nothing wrong with using your credit card to smooth out rough patches.

well i voted early that we were in a recession already. that was wrong. the data says not yet in recession. the data is rear view mirror but my vote was in march and was incorrect. the stimulus checks from the benevolent uncle should give us another quarter of growth. small growth.

yeah i used to have to calculate fv every day on a desk. even the dec futures have very little premium now. had even less when everyone thought the fed was going to cut more (about a month ago. i guess that interest = divs means buy 'em adage worked this time

thanks. about midway through my question i was going to ask if it was related to the dividends and interest but it seemed that should already be built into the futures premium.

well actually i was asking about the options on the futures. so does that mean this is all related to skew and not cost of carry? sorry for not being more clear.

worst is behind us if you mean the fed having to help sell-off investment banks. (i hope)

interesting article. thanks for posting it.

thanks for the info guys! i was pretty puzzled.

if you are looking for data you can buy EOD from the cme for about $1K (S&P). database goes back to start in the 80's

both are dec and i had a quote window open that showed bid/offer. april 28th- sp cash 1396.37 settle. dec futures 1402 settle dec 1425 put- 98.70 settle 1375 call- 104.30 settle difference 5.6 but calls on ly have $2 more intrinsic value the difference b/w cash and futures take...

jeff are all of your orders placed below the previous days close? it seems like even when your system has you following a trend in the underlying spy, lets say it is an uptrend, you might be entering a long call position on a pull back the next morning. then if trend continues your call goes...

with the s&p trading @ 1400 earlier this week the dec 1375 calls (25 pts in the money) were bid, offered and settled several points higher tahn the 1425 put (25 pts in the money). what caused the difference in price since both were in the money by the same amount?

there might also have been a lot of people that were short the stock and long the bonds that were closing their position

when i look at gold, crude, the euro and the ags it sure looks like the end of the world trade- "quik turn everything you own in dollars into other currencies and commodities" is officially over! well done ben

yeah wasn't it refco and bear back in ltcm days? both were last off the boat. refco- gone bear- gone jwm- gone refco hid that stuff in their financials for years. gotta wonder if jp morgan got to digging and found some old skeletons at bear too huh? did i say $20- sorry i meant $2

expiration is going to be followed by a long holiday weekend. a lot of money market funds just don't want the exposure over a long weekend. not indicative of anything but wanting rest after a crazy week. that's my theory.

historically more recessions are predicted thatn actually occur. the data is backward looking so we are usually in one before the data show it. a lot of the data isn't revised for several months. this also means that once a recession is over the same applies.

thanks for the tip on the think or swim software. i've been selling some strangles and just winging it with the out of the money puts since there is some major systematic risk to the market now. so far so good but that software might help.

the fdic has a bundle of $$ from collecting insurance over the years. remember taht they just bail out deposits up to 100K so they don't backstop the market value of the bank or anything else. even if the entire financial system fails their problems will be quite small compared to the other...