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  1. M

    This is for the long term traders

    1. Figure out an annual income that will allow you to "live comfortably" according to your own needs and wants and requirements 2. Multiply that by 50. 3. Keep trading until you have accumulated savings equal to step 2. 4. Use the savings to purchase Treasury Inflation Protection Securities...
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    Comprehensive List of Futures Contracts and Their Multipliers?

    The most popular (highest volume) futures contract in the world is the Bund traded on EUREX. Its BigPointValue ("multiplier") is 1000 Euros. Your broker is a good source of information for point values, tick sizes, hours traded, expiration dates, market holidays, and so forth.
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    protection against tracking cookies

    Get a used laptop for $200, install Linux, and do all your surfing from there.
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    Trading System Ebook Name

    FYI, Kaufman's book was written in 1978. It is now on the 4th edition but isn't dramatically different from the 29 year old original. Here's a little gem that Kaufman hasn't changed one little bit since the first edition; it can be found on page 133 of the C-2005 4th edition: It sounds as...
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    Random Walk Theory Proved, once and for all.

    D'ya know who would be really interested in a mathematical proof of this theorem? A math professor (professional theorem prover himself) who runs a hedge fund. Luckily such people really do exist. You could print up your proof on fancy high-brightness paper and send it to Jim Simons (profile...
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    The Difference Between Trend and Momentum

    Have your programmer code up some of your favorite systems, including the ones you're trading today, as black boxes. Tell her to give them anonymous names like "system1, system2, system3" and so forth. Now, you run them and look at the trades they generate. When you analyse each system, ask...
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    Experienced Traders Please take a glance: Identify this system or methodology...

    Indicators: HighestHigh(60 days), SimpleMovingAverage(5 days) If (yesterdays close > yesterdays SMA(5)) AND (todays low > todays SMA(5)) AND (todays close > yesterdays HighestHigh(60 days)) THEN Enter Long Tomorrow on a Limit Order at Price= (today's (H+L+C+SMA(5)) / 4) exit left as...
  8. M

    how to select strategy accoring to market condition?

    The most common approach is to say the instrument you're trading can be in one of several "conditions" or "states", and then use different mechanical trading strategies for each of the different states. For example a long-only mutual fund trading system might define two states and use two...
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    Trend Indicators / Systems

    A two parameter family of spectacularly simple, always-in-the-market, pure reversal systems is the following 1. Reverse to Long when Indicator(Setting) > 0 2. Reverse to Short when Indicator(Setting) < 0 The two parameters are: (i) the choice of which indicator to use; (ii) the choice of...
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    Is becoming a quant a waste of time?

    Is becoming a quant a waste of time? In reply, I ask you: "Is becoming a software engineer a waste of time?" Software engineers employed at Google may answer one way, software engineers employed at Boeing may answer another. Similarly, quants employed at Renaissance Technologies may...
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    How to figure the probability?

    It is slightly less work to do it Joe's way: calculate Y = probability(less than 2 heads) and then X = (1 - Y) Y = P(exactly 0 heads) + P(exactly 1 heads) = (1/32) + (5/32) = (6/32) Then X = Probability(2 or more heads) = 1 - Y = (26/32) using the good old binomial probability...
  12. M

    Monte Carlo / Simulation - basic question

    Lognormal distributions are used in many circumstances precisely BECAUSE they are strictly positive. If X is a Gaussian (i.e. "Normally Distributed") random variable, then Y=exp(X) is a Lognormally Distributed random variable. Mnemonic: the log of Y is Normal, so Y is said to be...
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    POLL: If you could give one piece of advice to a new trader

    You want my advice? Go back to Bulgaria. Richard Blaine
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    Microsoft exec calls XP hack 'frightening'

    Hmmm, the Microsoft exec would (A) benefit, or (B) suffer, if people became "frightened" of Windows XP and moved to Vista instead? Notice the article (and this thread) called it an XP hack and not an unsecured networking hack. Hmmm.
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    Passive Trend Methodology

    Other names for this same idea are "two phase system", "stop and reverse" trading system, "pure reversal trading system", and so forth. I trade a suite of several systems, chosen among other things, for diversity of trend length and for noncorrelation of performance. I find that mixing...
  16. M

    Position Size and Market Volatility - Trend Traders

    I recommend extreme scepticism when told what you "should" do or what you "must" do. Little anecdotes like (this one) serve to remind me that there are a million ways to trade profitably, some of which appear highly unorthodox to outsiders.
  17. M

    How to start building a system around expectancy

    Um, I think you have misunderstood. The X-axis isn't "trades", it is "calendar dates". The red and the blue aren't two totally different systems, they are the same system run with two different parameter settings. But you're right, the relationship between that particular parameter and the...
  18. M

    Opinion of this method of developing strategies

    Art Collins runs a thread here ( http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=83627&highlight=odds+czar ) and wrote a book (http://www.amazon.com/Beating-Financial-Futures-Market-Strategies/dp/0470038659/ ) based on the same premise. You might want to check it out.
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    Feasibility Question

    If feasible means "not theoretically impossible" then, sure, it is feasible. Is it likely? Try it and find out.
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    Citi Board Arrested - WTF?

    Have a look at the books they sell on that website http://www.worldreports.org/books . They provide insight into the mental health of the owner-operater, Christopher Story FRSA.
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