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Good move today on the +CD-AD despite AD breaking out yesterday. I got stopped out of my +SF-AD, sadly. Betting against the AD here doesn't seem high probability, but betting on the CD is an interesting idea. Any thoughts?

Wow! Corn/Dow! 91% correlated!

Medical costs of all forms are up 4.3% YOY. Housing costs are actually higher weighted and a larger mover (which I was surprised about). Education is actually a pretty big mover too with a fairly high weight. My concern is the commodities going forward. Eventually $8 soybeans and $4.50-ish...

There are plenty of analysts that sell subscriptions to their private news and analysis. Allendale, for example. CBOT has a free daily "Commodity News for Tomorrow" newsletter that's pretty well put together. They also have a 3x per day RSS feed on their major markets. I wish CME were as...

Higher demand does mean a stronger economy. One cause of inflation is when demand outpaces supply due to a strong economy. The fact inflation exists has nothing to do with the economy. It can cause bad things to happen to the economy, but the two are disjoint.

Look fine to me. Probably the web site just had an old quote. The 560 calls only traded twice today, and until they did, you likely had yesterday's (or even earlier) quote.

Yes. http://www.cme.com/clearing/clr/calendar.html?category=CME+Equities&product=ES&year=2007&view=table&x=13&y=12

I feel your pain on the AD/CD trade. AD looks like it's about ready to roll over too, but I don't want to touch the CD. +SF-AD has a pretty strong seasonal bias, and that's the one I'm trading. What was your rationale for the Hogs/Cattle trade? I'm not well enough versed on the...

scarrcharts.com Used to have some of the best, but his site has been down for a while. Anyone know what happened to him?

The only catch is limit moves, which new traders generally aren't prepared for.

To each is own, but I find this a great trade opportunity. Look at the +soy -(2) corn spread for the past few months. You can almost envision the group mentality: "Oh no, not enough corn, buy corn!" "Oh wait, no one will plant soybeans at this price ratio, buy soy!" "But we have a lot of...

Hi Drew, Thanks for the journal! It's tough to lay it all out for everyone to see, and I'm looking forward to tracking your plays. I'm wondering about the AD and CD trades. Getting stopped out of the short AD at this point seems like getting kicked out of the trade before it started. It...

These puts and calls are currently priced at some 300% IV. As soon as the news comes out, they'll get crushed into the 30% or 40% range. Just keep in mind that you're digging yourself out of a VERY deep hole if you buy options here.

opentick.com But, really, between using Erlang and a Mac, you're asking for quite a bit.

Then I'd suggest you look for other evidence to support your trade. The articles you posted won't make much difference to the price of Sugar #11. You might want to subscribe to sugaronline.com--they've got lots of fundamental info.

Which sugar are you going to trade, Sugar #11 or #14? "SB" is generally Sugar #11 which is sugar for delivery anywhere but the US. As a result, US lobbying efforts should make little difference to #11.

Posted on the IB message boards: Response from jpasc at 2007/02/09 16:15 EST:After speaking with management we have decided to not offer NYBOT on ICE at the present time. Should this change we will be sure to update our customers.

The difference is your formula does not take into account skew or expected returns. If interest rates get back into the 15%-ish range (or you're in for a very long time), the difference will be important. But, like you said, neither measure is terribly accurate ("accurate" meaning the error...

I don't see them listed on the website any more. Maybe when the full-sized contracts went electronic, they got rid of the minis? That being said, a whopping 45 contracts traded all day on Friday, and only in the pit.

You're absolutely right. My typo. I regretted that error as soon as I went to bed last night, but figured I'd have time to fix it this morning. I'm too slow. :-) All of this assumes risk neutral probabilities, which aren't "real world". The question was solely if a quick "back of the...