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If you pay to bet on a coin flip you just lose money, regardless of money management or risk control.

Market and factor neutral? Willing to take the other side of that bet. :P

Very good illustration of why betting purely on price is speculation and is a terrible idea. Imagine betting on whether price was going to rise or fall based purely on an assumption of autocorrelation.

Strategy vs. tactic. If your strategy is momentum and you’re looking at periodic deltas in slope then that’s a technical tactic, but your disposition is based upon your strategy, which is typically rooted in evidence. Similarly if you think vol is cheap or rich based upon the level of spx...

Where did I say day traders don’t use charts? I am talking about hedge funds, which I can speak to.

Charts of the underlying — spot and futures. I’m not against all charts btw I use them all the time and build charts of revisions and a variety of factors (good way to quickly scan what’s going on). To qualify I’m specifically refuting the notion that technical analysis is used as the basis of a...

Lol you love your straw man’s. :rolleyes:

I hear what you’re saying but I think we just see price and markets differently. For me the price of the car reflects the it’s perceived value, which fluctuates day to day based upon things like interest rates, dealer inventory, and such. For me to know I’m getting a good deal, I’d want to...

What’s your basis for why you think someone using a chart alone would outperform others? o_O

I was responding to your statement that without the Fed the US would go bankrupt. The Fed doesn’t print money — that’s the treasury. The Fed does create money in the form of reserves but this has little impact on inflation in the real economy. The US economy isn’t a zombie propped up by a single...

It's clear to me that you don't know what you're talking about. How would the US go bankrupt just because yields were higher? The US owes its debt in USD and can print dollars...

we can discuss stylistic choice at another time. No, the point is that no hedge fund portfolio manager or analyst at a legit shop is using chart based analysis to generate ideas. If you went to a hedge fund and said you could trade, and all you had was your TA charts, then you would not get the...

There's over $6trillon of USD held on foreign reserves lol: There's also $2 trillion sitting overnight in the Feds reverse repo facility. I'm not even including retail deposits on money market funds or other short-term cash equivalents, or the use of treasuries that underly the global market...

Dang, no culture war reference to homeless people, LGBTQ+, or liberals! I lost a bet. :(

It's funny -- your posts are like a right-wing chatbot. I can type in something random and you'll find a way to make a culture war out of it.

There is plenty of demand for US treasuries: Also, not sure why you're citing China. Foreign purchases of treasuries is a function of trade balance. The US is a capital exporter, so those dollars held away need to sit in some US-denominated asset. Not sure if you understand how treasury...

I seemed to have touched a nerve. Size will do that.

Huh? How would the US be bankrupt?

sounds like a democracy lol.

JP is what an illiterate thinks a smart person sounds like.