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Better breakdown is 3 years on the sell side (rates & fx focus) and 7 years on the buy side (with a focus on active risk). I think the benefit of working on the sell side is that it’s a much better place to learn about markets versus school or retail experience. Prior to my professional...

Yawn

Considering that the average day trader loses money, the Spx is a great first pass. Anyway it seems like you don’t really know how their performance stacks, and don’t have much experience in markets anyway. But if you believe you can whiz you’re way on charts, that’s fine by me.

What does their track record look like vs spx over time?

Bars, candles, same thing. Ps: I know a lot more about rentech than you.

I guess the question is “what is successful” and “trading for a living”? Like how much money are they making a year and as a % pnl wise? And how does that compare to SPX performance for that period?

The point of evidence is to demonstrate a claim is true. E.g. “here is what the returns look like on a 10 year period if you trade using charts” or “here’s what our hypothetical performance looks like based upon our strategy we are working on” etc. Otherwise what’s the basis for your view...

Okay I think we are getting off topic. I'm glad that you have found some mentors and a way to make money with charts, good for you. Would love to see some evidence that it works, but I get that you probably do not have any.

That’s literally not what they do lol. They run a team of 100s of phds who are running linear regressions and causality studies. No one there is looking at candlesticks. Also, math = quantitative analysis. “Technical data” is quantitive, but “technical analysis” is garbage.

Wouldn’t you think that the people that actually get paid and make money in the markets would use the most effective ways to make that money? If that was TA wouldn’t they use it? You’re saying an amateur trader making $20-30k a year is equivalent that the risk takers and traders pulling...

Whoops. Do I win?

Hmm how long have you been in the markets for? I’ve been on the pro side (sales-trading, risk taking, and portfolio management) for ~10yrs across banks, hedge funds, and asset managers and that’s not at all the view there.

Why do you think this is true.

:D

What time frame of chart would you need?

it’s a mathematical property. If you can generate excess returns then it means you’re not taking a coin flip. But if I were to give you the price of a stock at any given time how accurate would you be at guessing the next print?

okay I think we are getting a bit lost in communication. It sounds like your prior post said (correctly) that George Soros would analyze macro and then figure out how various macro scenarios would impact price (direction). However this post makes it seem like he (incorrectly) is looking at...

@taowave i can use TSIG <go> on bbg to run a backtest of a ma and rs strategy. Gimme the parameters and I’ll run it.

Ah you’re soooo close! Yes — gotta build a thesis to make a bet! Have to think you’re either getting a free coin flip, or that the coin is skewed to one outcome. Then make the bet. If you’re right you make money and if you’re wrong you lose money. Soros was not building elaborate macro...

@taowave you see what I’m dealing with