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I can't help it overnight, I just got hit by a windmill wing. The whole point was just to make an analogy that pointing to past events and saying what could have been done is pretty useless ( and it wasn't directed to you btw). Now if you will excuse me I am going to carve my wooden shoes. They...

Markets are fractal in nature, that’s why it is so easy for charlatans to be “right” everytime. When you don’t disclose timeframe..

People who invested in umbrella’s didn’t do so well…..

Not for the properly hedged investor. Although gradual movement is much easier to hedge than ‘jerky’ movements.

Patience. I just need a decade.

It’s a funny and somewhat true statement you make with the decreasing vs increasing supply, but demand for btc could fall exponentially as the opposing part of the equation. Chances for existing currencies are a lot smaller

I did a quick test on this but the difference seems less dramatic on first sight. The divergence happened at the start of the .com-crisis, but quickly dissapeared, or faded. (could be making error, am tired) r_cc (blue) = cum. return close t+1/close t r_co (orange) = cum. return close...

Hackers unfortunately have to steal more now because of inflationary powers and risks of rapid depreciation of the crypto’s. It really are bizarre numbers sometimes, like the scam of the cryptoqueen.

Just do the ‘failed-trader’ test: Park your sportscar a month somewhere else and show up on a bicycle. If she leaves you are better off. When she leaves, miraculously show up in your car a month later as a little revenge. When she asks what happened, mumble something like ‘exponential volatility...

That’s possible, but don’t confuse negativity/sarcasm with intelligence

Try to analyze > 1 year spy options data (weekly! quotes only) with excel: it’s just inconvenient and becomes very slow. But I still like excel because it gives more ‘ feel’ with the data. So python /R for data etl/ manipulation and excel for deeper analysis/scenario simulation. I think it’s...

ah, always the wise men explaining it after the facts, while frowning their eyebrows to look more intelligent. So what ‘obvious’ signs does the writer sees for the next 6 months?

I have used mrkt orders on spy options a lot and did not had that experience at all. Got filled between B/A a lot. It were weekly options with maximum deviation of 5% from atm and thus quite liquid though. But I would prefer putting in a lmt and moving it up or down if 'possible'.

Sounds a bit like, "if instrument/equity moves x% in direction p is higher the move will extend itself". I think you can make your strategy simpler.

do you select your hedging part because of the long term upward bias?(instead of hedging both legs equally) btw experimenting with leg combinations itm/otm (both hedged) also can be interesting, although otm is more liquid and preferable imo

Everybody ‘works’. I think it would be really ‘insane’ to hang all day at the beach. You can do it for a few weeks, but after that you would be bored as h*ll. When you don’t have enough money you need to work for a company/government. When you have enough money you have to manage your money...

Sometimes I envy you guys for the music, and it feels like my generation only produced 'plastic-algorithm-generated beats'. (Coldplay is one of the few exeptions)

uhh, okay..

It’s indeed a secret in plain sight, vix mean reverting. Although the mean itself has risen in this environment. Let’s sell the house and blindly load up on (-1) vxx! (pun intended) But I think one can craft a system starting with selling naked calls on vix, if you are comfortable with...

Simple percentage gain/loss is always calculated from your ‘starting point’. r = (Pt1-Pt0)/Pt0 so you need these 2 values to define r, without this it has no meaning