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Where can I buy the SP500 historical constituent list? I'm also looking for Nasdaq100 historical constituents, the Nasdaq website only goes back to 1995.

What a classic thread. Perfect timing.

Like everybody else will :cool:

Sounds like a good plan. This thing can run much higher, I'd just bail on any serious drop. Can always buy it back once it makes subsequent new highs.

Unfortunately, some will find out their "inflation hedging" was merely speculation in disguise :cool:

It can drop 80%+ any time, like anything else, no matter if it passes your bubble test or not.

Nope. Either trade the Chicago One equity futures for XLF/IYR or trade XLF/IYR equity options.

Ah that's why. Who was I to think it's a bunch of momentum speculators hoping to make a buck or two!

By your definition oil wasn't a bubble either, yet it still managed to drop 70% within 6 months after the 2008 peak.

You can trade the Chicago ONE futures for IYR and XLF. Large bid-ask spreads though, approx. 0.5%.

Nasdaq is far from 2000 peak, too. Time to buy? :cool:

http://www.hedgefundletters.com/category/baupost-group/ Klarman's letters, from 1995. An interesting read.

Doesn't matter much because you still should have a tidy profit even if it drops 10, 20 or even 30 %. What matters is that you know when to sell after a top and you're not caught like a deer in the headlights should things start going in the wrong direction. For many - and I am explicitly...

On the flip side, I could argue the same investor class is selling gold for $350 an ounce when they send in their old jewelry. Maybe $350 is the real price? The price dumbass real folks are selling for or are buying at in unregulated markets has nothing to do with the "real" price.

For 1 minute data, try http://pitrading.com/historical_data.htm

We all know what happens to people who go after systems/return that consistently make money in all markets, like clockwork. See LTCM, Niederhoffer and Madoff :cool:

The USD dropped 45% vs the European Currencies in 18 months, 1984-1985. There are no limits to drops in financial markets, who says the Dollar index can't go much much lower? So far, by historical standard we're seeing nothing special right now. The (synthetic, back-adjusted) EUR has been at the...

Talk about picking up nickels in front of a steamroller.

Sounds like an opportunity to me :cool:

Bought them in USD, and sold them in USD. All the Comex/Nymex metal contracts are denominated in USD.