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Coal isn't going anywhere, because there are plenty of people in develping countries who don't give a shit about your beachfront property getting flooded by global warming #firstworldproblems.

None of those leveraged ETFs should be held long for the long term. I'd dump TNA and buy ATW, AZO, BRK.B, DIS, JPM, LNKD, ORLY, TSM, WFC. Also buy some jan '18 puts on sears because it's probably going to zero by then, especially if the overall economy turns south.

Ya fuck it, just go 100% short UVXY

The idea is that on average the losses will cancel out the gains, if you were just buying calls randomly. But if you have any ability to predict what will happen to the underlying then you can do better than breakeven. Or take for example the SHLD Jan '18 5 puts priced at $1. That price is...

nope, it's still asking for 2x the cost of the calls in margin to buy them. Something's buggy with their algo.

So I have a strategy that involves identifying great companies at a low implied volatility and low price relative to intrinsic value and then buying some 1 year deep OTM call options. It worked pretty well with Wells Fargo in April 2013 when I tripled my money in a month. The whole black...

The housing bubble wasn't an unknown unknown. Lots of people knew and were talking about it before the bubble burst, but not enough of them.

* Real estate prices are back up to pre-crash levels. They could crash again given the right trigger. https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/USSTHPI * Bond yields are at all time lows. The only reason to ever buy treasuries at these ultralow yields is banking regulations that require...

I want to short sell venezuela government bonds... can IB even do that? Is there any better broker for that?

Which retail broker has the lowest portfolio margin requirement for writing long-dated index puts? Also, what's the best broker for a long-term forex carry? IB wants to take 5% of the interest in either direction of USDRUB and that's prohibitively expensive obviously.

Yellen said recently that if the shit hit the fan she would consider negative interest rates. Also they stopped talking about rate hikes because unemployment stopped falling and started rising again.

UVXY tracks the volatility index futures. So being long UVXY is being long volatility. UVXY has an insane decay rate of like 70% per year though, so it is very expensive to hold. But if you sell put options so far OTM that they won't be ITM after the normal decay rate then you can be...

Vol spikes when SPX falls. When SPX falls, yellen lowers interest rates. This results in a weakening of the dollar relative to the euro. And in the absence of some catalyst event shifting the exchange rates, it costs almost nothing to be long EURUSD. I read about top hedge fund managers...

-- Be long bonds (duh) -- Be long superleap call options on extremely undervalued equities. If vol spikes the options can go up even if the underlying moves in the wrong direction, but usually the underlying will move in the right direction and the calls will make a profit on average. -- Sell...

Besides the trade commission and the coupon, of course. Do they charge you anything to borrow the bonds for shorting them? The SLB rates tool in TWS doesn't list any bonds. Presumably they'd have to charge you something so that you can't just short 1 month T Bills and get effectively 0%...

Same industry, different fundamental ratios Long AZO: PE: 20.5 Net income growth: ~8% and flat Profit Margin: 11.5% and rising Return on Assets: 14.7% Long ORLY: PE: 27.5 Net income growth: ~15-20% and flat Profit Margin: 12% and rising Return on Assets: 14% and rising Short AAP: PE: 23.7...

The options may be illiquid so there won't be trade prices on all the dates.

Is there any tool for graphing option spread bid/ask prices over time, with several years' history? If not, how much would you pay for such a tool if I built it myself?

I shorted 100 TSLA @ 252 last week. FeelsGoodMan.

I'm up 10% this month with a long/short portfolio (about 2/3 long and 1/3 short). I'm in the green on almost all my longs and almost all my shorts. Blame your self, not the market.