Search results

Any strategy that can executed by computer cant be based on prediction. A computer cant predict. It has no notion of the future. It can only act on its inputs. Humans can give the computer output a meaning and say its a prediction. But since a computer has no notion of the future let...

No you go are going with the flow, you dont anticipate which way it goes after you get in. No one can do that, no one can predict the future of something so complex as the market.

Buying a breakout or whatever criteria is used, is not a prediction. It only tells you what the market is doing now. It doesn't and cant predict the future. Humans need a heuristic for decision making. "The market is breaking out now, im going with it. " Thats all you are doing...

A true trend following trader does not care which way it will go after they get in. They follow the flow of the market. If going with the flow yields a profit then so be it, if it yields a loss then so be it. It just so happens that going with the flow is net profitable in the long...

If you follow someone down the street are you predicting where they are going? If you follow the market, you aren't predicting where it is going, it could go anywhere after you start following it. Sometimes it will keep going in one direction and that will make you money, other times it will...

Trend following is 'following' and not trend 'prediction'. If a market starts to make a move you follow it. If it doesn't make a move you dont follow it. And you follow it from behind with a trailing stop, you dont even try and predict where it will end up. No prediction involved.

Having said that.. looking at a long term chart of the VIX. It stayed below 20 for about 5 years in the 90s (approx 1991 to 1996). And 3 years in the 2000s (mid 2004 to mid 2007). There was the odd spike up, but nothing lasting. So it might be a few a years before the vix goes above...

The markets we have at the moment are have ok (medium) volatility, and you can still make a good profit. 2008 was insane volatility. perhaps something you only get once every 20 years. But high volatility vix in the, 25 to 50 range, happens more often.

You can have a blast for $2million, you dont have to blow the whole $10mill. But if you got an addiction to gambling or crack then its all going to go..

Hats off to marketsurfer for making live market calls in this journal. Takes quite some balls to do this. Marketsurfer has hit a bit of a losing streak with his calls recently, anyone who has been trading for long enough knows this happens to the best of traders. Its worth giving new...

If you experienced enough to have developed one or more good trading edges then figuring out how to add to positions shouldn't be a problem for you.

What do you reckon his win rate is? It looks to be below 50% from what i have seen over the last year. He slags off TA but his Price Drivers (what ever they are) seem to be no better than a random entry and may in fact be worse than a random entry (ie have a negative expectancy before...

Good overnight support volume in GC, 150K contracts traded so far. Looks like the sellers have finished up for now. Did the OP take his profits off the table?

<iframe width="420" height="315" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/dKYM62qSA_0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe> Heart disease and heart attacks maybe it kill loads of traders, i would also guess the suicide rate is higher among traders than most other jobs. As well as stress, the...

Trade2win is more for the UK bucket shop crowd, spread betting and shady forex firms.

Its good the OP has made a call to go with the trend, however he is way too late to the short party, the big trend following funds will be short from much higher levels. Gold could easily have a snap back rally once all the stops and weak long hands have been shaken out.

How many contracts? If you dont tell us, then you can fiddle the books. If goes against you then you can say it was only 1 or 2 contract. If it goes in your favour you can claim it was 5 or 10 contracts.

I note his losing YM trade was $25 per tick (5 contracts) So he then goes to bet $100 a tick on CL (10 contracts). Now even a coin flip will eventually put a 'smile on the bottom line' if you keep upping your bet size four fold every time you lose.

Do you have a YTD trade log so we can verify this claim? The two closed CL trades on this thread means he is down $55,000 on them. There was also a YM trade which surf mentions he closed at loss at the start of this journal (post 1), i tracked down from this previous journal: Short YM...

How much gold is he carrying and from what price level?