We know it's already bad, so how do you think the markets will react? Amplify that with an inept bunch of villagers on the Hill, and this is a good basis to take it down.
Your target distribution and accumulation is 100 pts apart? That's too small for the current vol. Maybe on a short time frame, but we are seeing 200 pts movement intraday lately.
There's a tendency for AH to plow pass support.
I would like a test and hold of the low below 2200 to start buying. But this is still too early to tell.