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Size will depend mainly on the projected stop-loss and risk percent. If the stop-losss is 3% or 3K and you want to limit risk to 10$ then the size is: # od contracts = (100K x .1)/3K = 3.33 = 3 contracts This article has the math and an example for bond futures...

No need to "sigh", I understand all about open equity. Do you know the maintenance margin requirement of all those trades, your overall leverage and the VaR for your closed equity, which is obviously much less than $270K? Do you know you have redundant positions in forex? For example...

Maybe I have seen this journal in the past but I do not remember now. My question is: How come although the last 3 or 4 trades were losers the gain in equity is substantial? Can you provide details? I am also using two trend-following systems and I am thinking of opening them to other markets.

Profit factor > 1 means net profit but nothing specific. Some kid with a $50 micro forex account can have a PF = 50 but net only $10 at the end of the year, so what? At the same time a hedge fund with a PF =1.1 can net $1 billion.

NNs is a curve-fitting method. Very useful where curve-fitting is required, completely useless where curve-fitting is to be avoided, like in trading.

Braincell is trying to figure it out..

What do you mean by that? Every system developed using historical data is an artifact of data mining. Did you mean maybe "curve-fitted"? That is a different issue. Not all systems obtained through data mining are curve-fitted. Your system equity is an illusion of compounding fitted profits...

It seems that braincell cannot deal with data in a proper way. Yet, braincell is an expert. Sounds too much of a contradiction to me.

It's probably a lot worse that that. Probably 99.95% of all traders lose 100% of their capital. But keep in mind that most of them start with $100 in mini forex accounts. A better statistic would be the percentage of traders who are losers after 3 years of trading and with at least $25 in their...

The same problem is present with intraday bars unless you exit at the end of the day. Welcome to real backtesting... Edit: you know what pisses me off the most with people like you? In other threads you appear like a heavy-duty expert about almost everything, from data-mining to...

Day trading is a form of addiction for 99.99% of those who are involved. They justify their addiction as a form of occupation. Only 0.01% knows what they are doing and make money. Your chances of getting addicted to a losing activity are very high. Your chances of making money are very low. If...

http://www.google.com/search?q=payoff+ratio+ do you get to google in your area? :)

Thanks for the links. Very important articles from a serious source. "Mr Zuckerberg will be joining a troubled club. " Good prediction. The system will try to rip him off.

Socialists are not going to understand you. An IPO is when the creators get paid for their hard work. Socialists have envy. They want people to work and distribute their wealth to those who day dream equality in everything. This is a very dangerous attitude. What is funny is that at the other...

Too many trolls. Just too many...

I think the payoff ratio is more important than the pf. If you can get pr > 2 with no optimization then you may have something. Profit factor is not a robust measure.

This is why I delete the part asking him if he understand it but still you asked about the profit factor, right? Trade volatility is a different issue.

Your statement doesn't make any sense to me at all. Profit factor is calculated as the ratio of the sum of all winning trades over the sum of all losing trades. Those are closed trades. What happened in between makes no difference and it is not of any concern. PF deals with realized gain and...

Neither very high nor very low pf systems are robust. In my experience the most robust systems maintain a pf between 1.8 and 2.4. Those other high pf systems are curve-fitted and optimized. Please understand the math. A system with 100 trades all winning has infinite pf. If the trade 101 is...

You are also wasting your time if you purchase a simple charting software and you start drawing lines all over the place and plotting indicators. You are definitively wasting your time if you start writing hundreds of lines of code for testing systems since the probability of such systems...