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Can you be more specific what you mean by a trading application? 1. An application to generate signals for trading? 2. A program to send orders to a broker? 3. An algorithm for finding liquidity? 4. Any combination of the above?

I think there is not such thing as "probability outcome". Probability is defines as the ratio of the favorable to the total number of outcomes.

Joe, I think you must differentiate between greedy but sophisticated individuals like the lady broker trading OPM and uneducated traders. She knew of her risks, she was just too greedy. Uneducated traders know nothing about risk, how it is determined and what it can do to them, although they...

If you have no estimates of your edge and your odds you cannot bet, at least theoretically there is no way to calculate it. %Kelly article The best you can do is bet small to avoid a streak of consecutive losses. Say 5% of you capital at most.

If the performance is increased without decreasing the statistical significance of the results you may have something there.

Stupidity

Most of you may not be familiar with lifestyle economics, a specialized subject. High-class prostitution demand increases during times of recession because it is a substitute for spending time and money on investment related activities. Specifically, wealthy people do not invest during...

China and India will starve if they destroy the dollar. Russia will only have short term benefits due to a rise in oil prices. A new currency cannot change the fact the Russia is an Oligarchy and spends virtually no money on its future development. I think the article is a joke and shows how...

Krugman is correct and Lorenzo is a typical European bureaucrat who possibly wants to please the ECB hawks and does not care about social unrest in Europe. Because that is the real problem for Europe to come.

15K is a realistic amount for a hedge fund. In my experience (2 years trading for a hedge fund in the past), depending on what you trade, you should assume a maximum annual return of 20%. This means you need to have a minimum capital to start with of about 20 Million. If you make more, that is...

Not correct. Expectancy is the edge of a trading system - in the traditional gambling sense - assuming a large enough sample of trades has been used to calculate it and profits and losses are normally distributed. Expectancy is NOT "the probable return or profit for the next trade". It is the...

Those stupid traders that sold the dollar today now nothing about the velocity of money. They will get burned soon. It is the velocity of money that generates inflation, not quantitative easing and the velocity is down at this point, negative slope, not even sign of turning up. Stupid suckers...

Weaken against the ruble you mean?

I think this is a lot of work and APS can do it for sure but I only use 15 and 30 minute bars and 20 - 50 pip exits and I get many patterns every time I run the program. The difficult part is forward testing all these patterns and although the new version makes this a lot easier than it was...

I do agree with your points. Do you agree with mine or do you think that under no circumstances short sellers can do damage to a company?

Use slippage. The same assumption holds true for futures, however.

I'm not sure either that it was short selling that cause the global crisis as the video maker claims. With that being said, short sellers can cause a lot of damage and even drive a company bankrupt if there are loans with collateral the stock of the company. It also damages reputation and...

Also check this paper, it is better than wikipedia's because it is from the point of view of trading with an example.

I keep listening to just one side of the story. The story has three sides. One leg is the banks lending money to people to buy homes, then investment banks packaging the loans and selling them to investors and AIG selling insurance to them through CDS derivative products. Now, suppose AIG was...

So according to you, the position size is determined by testing, paper trading and live trading. Hmmm...but isn't the case that paper trading or live trading require that you take a position to start with? Especially in the case of live trading, what should be the position risk in the process...