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I don't know what a VIX is but the attached chart would have lead me to think that the price drop between Jan-May 2002 is an overreaction while in fact it was barely the beginning.

Two things: 1. Whatever Oz is doing, ain't working. 2. Giving opinions based on Academic research and backed by successful experimentation over several years is doing someone a favor if that someone is still searching for a successful method. If you’re successful with whatever method...

Ozzy, I like your journal because it is one of the very rare journals that clearly and honestly displays the progress of the experiment and I sincerely whish you the best. But, unfortunately, I have to tell you that rokafella had very good observations to share and probably wanted to help you...

Always been. Always will. "Name than tune" is the name of the game.

Good suggestion. Then, the next step is to make sure you can quickly recognize bad trades. It looks like you're on a good start with that. How do you recognize a bad trade or what gets you out fo a trade?

Here we go again. Another political thread that started in the Trading for a Living >> Psychology forum that will be moved to the Chit Chat section.

Price going in the opposite direction with increasing volume and open interest.

Start of list: Were all the required signals present when I initiated a trade? If so, this could be a good sign to get out. Am I tempted to quit because of one or several misleading emotions described in the Creating the Emotional Filter thread? If so, quitting wouldn’t be a good idea yet...

Systems generating profits over an extended period of time usually have successful trade rates much closer to 50% than 100%, which leads me to be believe that it all comes down to being skilled at quickly identifying wrong trades. Emotions seem to be the major obstacle but in addition to...

Excellent description of the torture undergone during a trade. But I have a question about "I know I should exit immediately because the market clearly hasn't acted right." How do you know this is a bad trade? This question could also be the starting point of a new thread that would...

Start of list - frustration about previous losses leading to revenge trading - fear of loosing an opportunity leading to impulsive behavior - searching for confirmation in news and comments supporting existing positions and rejecting contradictory opinions leading to denial. - lack...

I have avoided a few mistakes in the past by realizing that what I was about to do is "what George would do" – always the wrong thing since George was a living encyclopedia of emotions leading to wrong decisions. Based on what I read here and there in this forum about very common emotions, I...

Glad you're back.

As an alternative to eliminating your bias you can also change your bias. George Soros wrote in his books that he makes a right call only about 50% of the time so the key to his profit is to limit losses. This involves a combination of humility, because you have to be quick at accepting...

The Rational Expectation Hypothesis is a good base to build a theory of market behavior and by extension a set of rules constituting a trading system. Market participants compete in predicting market reactions to future events and by trying to define something that doesn’t exits -- the...

I don't have the guts to ride the market on stormy days. Being short on stocks sounds like a good move but I prefer to wait for clearer skies when the stock market will be licking it’s wounds again – like it did in mid April - while oil is going back down after stocks will have posted...

Are you taking a long position in oil to hedge your long position in stocks? I also see stocks coming back up soon but I'm waiting for oil to come down a bit before doing anything.

THE WEEK IN REVIEW After the plug was pulled Monday afternoon at 3:35, it became clear that things had to get worst before they could get better. At the moment, the only thing that can get oil prices under control is a falling stock market...

I will liquidate my remaining DJIA calls on market open.

Liquidating one of the three JUL05 DJIA calls in portfolio.