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We'll likely revisit 2900 before popping back up to 3150.

“Nothing of any importance can be taught. It can only be learned, and with blood and sweat." —Robert Anton Wilson

Wow, unbelievable! That's the year I started trading as well. How we could have ended up on two different poles is another matter for debate.

As I keep repeating, it's never different this time. Whether it's on its way up or way down, it's always characterized by one and the same thing: EXTREME. Extreme greed and extreme fear. In another word, human stupidity.

There were self-delusional people here who said the same thing back in 2008 as the market came crashing down. They kept on repeating the same refrain all the way to the bottom. It looks obvious you've never seen bear markets.

Seriously, you're an incurable idiot yourself. No, much worst.

I remember a few die-hard permabulls. They probably changed their handles. Nothing new. Still the same old. For instance, what's that dude called, the one who always tells people to sell their home and buy QQQ to the hilt, that it was going to the moon? Their heads will be handed down to them on...

Well, trading the bear market is much harder than trading the bull market. First, you do not just want to buy and hold. You will most likely get slaughtered. The market can gyrate up and down over 50 handles at a clip. You need to be nimble and not be greedy. As they say, bulls make money, bears...

I don't think so. At least not yet. It's too early for this type of short squeeze. Maybe when we're down 30%.

We're only down 10% and you're already crying for mercy? :rolleyes: :sneaky:

Before that ever happens, you can expect the PPT to step into high gear. Also helicopter Powell will be overanxious to crank up the QE engine. It's happened before. It will happen again.

I say this because the signature line for all past bear markets is "If it ain't 50% drop, it ain't no bear market." In all truth, however, the previous two bear markets actually went down more than 50%. I guess only time will tell.

Only way to get out of the bubble is to remove the excess froth.

You brought up a good point. I believe going down to the low of 2018 fall is quite possible. That's 2340 on the ES, which is roughly 46% drop from the ATH.

In theory, I would agree wholeheartedly. But in practice, that would mean you need to jump from extreme greed to extreme fear in order to survive. Who would want to live like that? Only morons. And that's what I think of the market.

Actually, Padu can be forgiven for his naivete. The guy who constantly advised people to sell their home to buy QQQ should be dragged out and flogged.

From reading some of the posts on this forum, I get a sense that not a lot of them have truly witnessed or actually traded during 2000-2003 or 2008-2010 bear markets. I'm sure most of them will not make it through this bear market. But that's part of the game.

The motto of the day is: THAT'S WHAT HAPPENS WHEN THE BUBBLE POPS, STUPID! Don't get sour now. You've enjoyed 12 years of bubble. Had there been corrections along the way, we wouldn't be seeing such a severe selloff. This is the ultimate consequence for extreme greed--extreme fear. Thank god...

I agree. However, that's most likely attributable to the emergence of HFT, which was absent in the previous bear markets. Also we've never had 12 years of full-fledged bull market either. The greater the bubble, the greater its pain. It's always been like that. It's unfortunate that people are...

Uhm...actually, 2008 was far worse than now. Of course, it will likely get a lot worse from now on. Brace yourself. You have yet to see what raw "panic" looks like. It's nasty. That's why I hate trading so much. It shows the raw emotions of greed and fear.