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I'm really not trying to be rude here, but what is the point of your posts? I think people are assuming a lot of hidden risks in indexing and the returns don't justify it. I think you are correct that 99% of the ET posters are full of shit, but I really don't see how "buy etfs, dont go short...

ok we're pretty much on the same page here.

So correct me if I'm wrong, but you're buying ETF's and holding for a long time, trading very infrequently. How do you make your decisions of what to buy, when to buy and when to sell? Do you ever get short? Why is this idea cool? I don't get what the fuss is if you're just trading an...

1. I respectfully disagree completely with this point. You need to find the post I made (I think on this thread) about how you can win at trading because you aren't playing the same game as everyone else... that someone doesn't necessarily care of I buy here and sell 1.00 higher. Also...

Good work. Exactly what time frame does your backtest reference? Also make sure you did not include deletions due to bankruptcies, mergers, etc in the sample. I have never looked at those really, so I dont have any intuition about what they would look like. As for the change between...

I find the entry very simple also. Buy when a change is announced, short on the actual effective date. Don't trade bankruptcies or b.s. like that. I only start off with that because I have gotten several PM's that suggest people think this system is complicated. It's not... it's the essence...

What exactly do you mean my passive portfolio? I'm not sure we're on the same page with this so please clarify.

You're welcome. Remember, being flat is also a position... you don't always have to be long or short! :)

Interesting idea. There are people here who don't understand what you mean by "trade vega" so why don't you talk a little in very simple terms about how you would execute a strategy like this?

No doubt that is how a lot of people use monte carlo, but I don't find it necessary or particularly useful. For most of our work we have the full sample set of returns and then a subset that conforms to our signal. We compare the two datasets (note that the 'control' group also includes the...

A few thoughts: The thing about fundamental analysis is that it's very easy to lie to yourself. If you figure a stock "should" be worth 20 and it's at 17.50 you buy. If it goes down to 15, you should buy more... at 10? Buy more... 5? 0.50? You see the problem. I think it's very...

very difficult but very important point. you spend most of the time playing defense and grinding... when the stars align you have to know when to press because it doesn't happen that often.

short post here... here is how I would evaluate this idea. 1. Get the entry dates. You need the announcement date and the effective date. (I am a huge believer in the 80/20 rule.. it is possible to expend 20% of the effort and get most of the results... so there's a shortcut in this case...

Ok I guess I should cut you some slack since I did call you a prick... but you have to realize the point of this thread is how to evaluate a trading idea. This is NOT how you do it: find someone who says they have traded it and demand verification from them that it's a good idea. I chose...

ok... but those weren't just technical points. we did a ton of analysis finding fundamental attributes that predicted significant price declines a few years back and found the model has held up very well. it's a semi-quantitative approach to fundamental analysis, and the real advantage is that...

<sigh> what an idiot. i didn't give two references... i gave the two most well known academic papers... and i also gave a link from the s&p website that gives the index changes going back years. so you should be instantly gratified now right? what more am i missing? why is this guy...

and the action today shows why holding on is not a good idea. why take a position in a stock BEFORE earnings anyway? i've never understood why people do that. [/B]

Good thinking but don't do anything aside from collecting the tickers and relevant dates yet. IMO you're overcomplicating slightly and I dont want you to waste time and energy. I'll try to post more midday.

let's do the background work on this system idea first and then we will look at some OHLC ideas so you can see how i evaluate those. biggest risk is of course for some reason it just stops working one day... or there's always the chance that a short will explode 500% in your face. (due to...

When a company reports numbers that look good but trades down hard you look to the guidance. In this case guidance was ok so you look to comments in the call. The inventory issue is potentially a MAJOR issue. Lots of times when companies have problems the first hint is an inventory issue so I...