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  1. M

    Drys

    I am expecting scenario #2 but am hoping for #4 and that is where the real potential upside in this trade is. You are right, if #2 transpires then a pure credit spread would be the way to go but if we actually get some real good news I want the ratio skewed in favor of capturing that reward...
  2. M

    Drys

    Earnings Release: Tuesday, March 24, 2009, After Market Closes Conference Call and Webcast: Wednesday, March 25, 2009, at 9:00 a.m. EDT http://www.capitallink.com/ppress/ppressfile/23406845/dryspr032309.pdf Lots of buying today all day, shorts covering in to dilution or funds buying...
  3. M

    Drys

    Took profits (perhaps being too aggressive again but looking at over a 100% return and am already overweight commodities), will buy back in after earnings date is announced. Edit: Picked up 80 April 7.5 calls to keep a toe in as the contract announced effectively takes the risk of BK off the...
  4. M

    Drys

    Idiot broker told me earnings was today after close, in actual fact no date set yet. Added the april 5 calls again today. Check here for date: http://www.irwebpage.com/dryships/ir.html Added Rimm April 50 Calls today as well.
  5. M

    "The game is over”: collateralized loan obligations not wanted; record defaults loom

    I imagine there were people like you saying similar things when the indexes were down 50% in 1929. This crisis has been consistently UNDER REPORTED. Even now people like Roubini and those like him are talking about stuff the main stream financial media has yet to pick up on, including...
  6. M

    Drys

    ? Didn't see under 3.7 today, was $4 when I posted. Edit: I guess you mean you were bidding $3.5. Anyway the point is that IV is artificially low and I think I know why. We will see if I am right tomorrow afternoon.
  7. M

    Drys

    I have been buying the April 5's the last couple of days (also far too cheap in my estimation) but will be hedging the position prior to EOD tomorrow at a ratio of 1000 shares short /50 calls.
  8. M

    VIDEO - What Happened to Bear Stearns

    While not specifically related to BSC there is a real problem with large specs using debt to manipulate stock. A company can be forced in to BK by its bond holders, even a small % of them, they also have the power to grant the company a reprieve. That is a lot of power to move the stock price.
  9. M

    National Debt Hits $11 Trillion!!!

    Total US Debt is now almost 400% of GDP.
  10. M

    Drys

    OK so the stock was at $17 a month ago, headed back to $3. Earnings out today and yesterday SBLK posts and pops 25%, BDI is up 300% from the lows. DRYS trading at $4. Given the above what would you sell the March $5 calls for? All I know is that unless I had some inside info there is no way in...
  11. M

    Tax food for thought...

    1) Couldn't agree more. 2) During the housing bubble you would be surprised how many people I know who moved from suburban San Fran to the mid west when they started to have children. I see the same exodus from Boston to places like NC and FL not necessarily because of taxs per se but because...
  12. M

    Tax food for thought...

    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601039&sid=aMN8U14Ha8Mk&refer=home If the government is truly interested in maximizing its revenue, not in redistributing income, it should cut taxes on the rich. Blasphemy, I know.
  13. M

    I am going to Disneyland!

    For anyone who really does the kind of option volume VM dreams about doing take a look at optionhouse's (etf forum sponsor) flat rates (would have saved over $14K in commisions on this fictional trade).
  14. M

    Freddie Reports $23.9 Billion Loss and needs another $30B

    No kidding, a cautionary tale for what is likely still to come from the banks. I have thought for a while now that there may be unintended consequences to the government agreeing to a giv ethem a blank check in preferreds as it will incentivize the banks to write off as much as possible and take...
  15. M

    IMF On The Brink of Running Out of Cash; Repeats Risk Of Great Depression

    http://money.howstuffworks.com/question213.htm http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601085&sid=avSIPefMdSKk&refer=europe March 10 (Bloomberg) -- The International Monetary Fund may turn a profit of almost $650 million next year, enriched mostly by eastern European nations taking...
  16. M

    Freddie Reports $23.9 Billion Loss and needs another $30B

    http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123680408920799901.html#articleTabs%3Dcomments Freddie Mac, still suffering from the lax mortgage-lending practices of the housing boom, reported a loss of $23.9 billion for the fourth quarter and said it will need a $30.8 billion injection of capital from the...
  17. M

    Stop complaining...

    Constructive advice for complainers: Don't like something? Do something about it, or don't. But don't waste time and energy complaining (yours and that of those unfortunate enough to have to listen to your impotent venting). For some, the best course is to try and change your situation, or at...
  18. M

    because everyone says we need capitulation, maybe we'll never have it

    Too many people think we are close to the bottom (we are not)and are buying in small increments, trying to be clever. There will be a few capitulation days before this is over, the thing is that at least the 1st few won't mark the bottom as expected (too many waiting to cleverly buy on the...
  19. M

    What if we did not bail out the banks?

    The trouble with letting banks fail is that there is no quick and transparent mechanism for valuing and disposing of assets (by design, position knowledge has long been an institutional trading edge). We need to move all these non exchange traded instruments on to a regulated exchange with...
  20. M

    You are not alone Mr Cooper...

    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=anmrn4H8hXfw&refer=home March 6 (Bloomberg) -- TCF Financial Corp., the Wayzata, Minnesota-based bank that never made a subprime loan and hasn’t lost money since 1995, is asking why it should help clean up the mess made by Wall Street...
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