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I like their sweaters... :D

These spreads are initiated near the money, with strikes 5 points apart. The most they lose is 5 points, minus the credit. Or about 2.5 pts. The advantage of using bull put spreads, is that you get a credit and you might not have to pay to close them if SPX moves up a lot near expiry. And as...

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Here's one from ET's own Phil Budwick: http://www.amazon.com/Option-Trader-Handbook-Strategies-Adjustments/dp/0470481617/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1289875266&sr=1-1

These spreads are structured to be more like a 50-50 bet. You win about $2-$3, or you lose about $2-$3. Depends on your credit received and b/a costs and commish, etc. So the idea is like a 50-50 bet that wins about 60% of the time (over a long enough period). It's not quite that easy of...

Happy BD! (AV-8B Engineer)

Pretty funny. You have to be kidding, there is no way that is CHEM spraying...and...heck...I forgot what I was saying... I - Love - Obama - I - Will - Do - Anything - The - Government - Wants - They - Are - Here - To - Help - Us...

Welcome back, John! You do realize the mods can check your IP? :D

'Surfer's parents must have ignored him as a child... :p

Sure seems like the powers that be will do whatever it takes to keep the US heading upwards. The same test only shows close to 50% up/down months over 20-30 years of commodity futures like oil and gold. Kind of what you expect. This is a game for US stock indices...

And SPX from 1962. You guessed it - up months still hit 60%... Third Friday to third Friday changes (at Close) for SP-500 Start 19620316 Price: 70.96 19620419, 68.59, %Chg: -3.34 19620518, 63.82, %Chg: -6.95 19620615, 55.89, %Chg: -12.43 19620720, 56.81...

This might be encouraging for you backtest freaks - how about DJ-30 from 1915? Yeah the data might be a little suspect and there were no options, but the up months still hit near 60%... Third Friday to third Friday changes (at Close) for DJ-30 Start 19150319 Price: 56.90...

I don't have SET data, but here are the Friday closes. Third Friday to third Friday changes (at Close) for SPX Start 19980320 Price: 1,099.16 19980417, 1,122.72, %Chg: 2.14 19980515, 1,108.73, %Chg: -1.25 19980619, 1,100.65, %Chg: -0.73 19980717, 1,186.75...

Here are some more data for monthly index (XEO and SPX) closes. Keep in mind these are third Friday closes. Third Friday to third Friday changes (at Close) for XEO--X Start 20020215 Price: 559.65 20020315, 591.13, %Chg: 5.62 20020419, 559.79, %Chg: -5.30 20020517...

There are just 10 kinds of people - those that can write code, and those that can't...

For you data mining geeks and backtesters, here are expiration-to-expiration changes for SPY. Changes greater than +-5% are highlighted: Expiration to expiration changes (at Close) for SPY Start 20010216 Price: 130.40 20010316, 115.08, %Chg: -11.75 20010420, 124.50...

Oops. Yeah, haven't had my coffee yet... :p

Thanks. Yeah I'm certainly not against increasing size (carefully). It's been good to me too. A "standard" martingale double-down will eventually bite you. In the markets, unlike Vegas, oversold/overbought conditions create opportunities. Yes, you are "due" for a winner after so many...

Thanks for bringing this up. A rough calc shows winners are approx: 63 X 2.5 = 157.5 pts. And losers: 37 X -5 = -185. I know that losers aren't always 5 pts, but winners aren't always 2.5 pts either. Could you tell us how much your average winner is, vs your average loser? The...