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yup. it is certainly one potential suspect. i thought there was some new rule mitigating USO roll but i do not remember exactly. looks like interesting times ahead again. :eek:

everything can be traded technically - of course. but one should still have an idea what he is trading and some fundamental backdrop imo.

thanks for the article. that basically summarizes my sentiment in layman language. i just do not know what to make out of all of this. the spread between 1st and 2nd was continually increasing in the past few days which is not what one would expect while tankers are being chartered, i.e. i...

recently we have had a deja vu in CL nearbys. the first and second is of by about twice the cost of carry. what does it mean? anybody buying first and selling second while carrying crude in storage makes about $1/bbl. why this arb does not work? is it because there is no storage? - i...

interesting that somebody who wants to trade atlantic arb does not know where to execute trades.... :confused: atl arb despite being a popular trade by energy trading outlets is actually quite an advanced startegy which depends on many variables - like shipping costs, refinery demands, asia...

a tick is a tick, i.e. the minimum increment in price, i.e. 1/64

that's how i make my living as well...

agree. next time let's replace all these nameplates with people having background in farming, truck driving, dishwashing etc. and of course GS is looking after themselves first - everybody does.

sure. i allow you to go to trade your 2 futures contracts now. good luck. :)

ok. i can't argue with the volatility argument. i usually stay away trading delta in such instruments though. interesting to be long commodities in the summer (weak seasonals) while thinking that the market is overbought - and then hedge it by selling the healthiest currency around against...

we are already above that now... big rally going on - maybe CIT related...(?)

i am not sure i feel better now - but i lost money today as well...

that's kind of question you should be able to answer much better. you do not trade potatoes because they are potatoes but because you can make money with them - of course unless you are a potato farmer. :) don't take this personally, i am really interested in AUD/JPY micro thinking here...

yes, i wanted to generate debate. btw, i think trading spot IS a trading as any other. i just wonder why trade less liquid cross which is the best proxy for carry trade, i.e. risk appetite - which in turn is reflected first in the equity market. on top of that, by any metric, AUD is in much...

well then you can simply have larger position in ES compared to AUDJPY. my point is why trade something that is secondary to ES and follows it pretty tightly...(?)

how is this different from selling ES? just wonder...

to OP: hahaha - that would be funny. so it may not be that bad to drive hummer after all. the proposal is wiser than a fuel tax because people could start to buy efficient cars and the big brother (or uncle for that matter) wouldn't collect enough taxes. it doesn't matter how much...

looks like you had some bad trading recently... success in trading is possible only with a positive attitude. one of the trading rules you usually do not see posted very often... :)

taleb is one of the best jokes around. well, maybe that "i-know-it-all" guy from CNBC europe is ahead of him...

no. it is the most basic thing in the future trading (cost-of-carry principle) - more basic than pressing a buy/sell button. using continuous compounding and simplifying you have: F1 = Spot * exp((dvd.yld - fin.costs) * T) where F1 is the first future contract. similarly: F2 = F1...