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  1. W

    Stocks are random variables

    YES WE are on the same page MP models price over time so does a tick chart and so does a timechart neither is more objective than the other. but, they do help give different insight into past market behavior. im pretty zen about this stuff. i don't believe in grails, just...
  2. W

    Stocks are random variables

    fair enuf market profile users (and i use MP myself btw) are wrong if they think THEIR model is objective, and others aren't frankly, i get tired in some MP threads and forums where they get all "holy grail" abou t it there is nothing magickal about the "value area" or the point of...
  3. W

    Stocks are random variables

    "supposedly objective?" all indicators i am aware of are 100% objective. that says nothing about their UTILITY. but i am not aware of any indicator that is not OBJECTIVE. just as price is objective. i love the fact that many daytraders try to find the grail through indicators. it...
  4. W

    If so many people are unsuccessful traders...

    on that point, i also think most people don't understand that, GENERALLY SPEAKING, exit decisions are more critical than entry decisions, and in many (if not most) traders cases will be the deciding factor in profit vs. non-profit.
  5. W

    Stocks are random variables

    bear, i am not alex i just find that the most profitable method (scaling out) certain setups allow scaling in as well. depends on the setup
  6. W

    Bollinger Bands

    no indicator is the "way to go " for datrading success. developing an edge and managing risk is what makes money indicators are tools. NO indicator is necessary, but some people find utility by looking at indicators, and at price for that matter BB's are a measure of volatility...
  7. W

    Stocks are random variables

    bear, that's a great analogy. cards TRULY are random. yet, given a random distribution of cards, a skilled player, given sufficient "n" makes money. and that money necessarily comes from losing players. the stock market is not zero sum, like a poker game, but the futures market is...
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    Crude Oil Market Analysis

    non-commercials are the "speculative" money. commercials, to a large extent are taking positions to hedge. if they are long physical (iow, if they are a producer), then a hedge would be to short the market . thus, if the market goes down, they don't lose money on what they have because the...
  9. W

    Stocks are random variables

    thanks, bill as one example, i have a list of about 20 different setups what they are, essentially, is recognition that when certain market conditions come together, there is a statistical likelihood of a movement in one direction over another. MOST are of the means reversion variety...
  10. W

    throwing in the fkin towel!!!

    rober, 100% true. and most would also be better off never starting their own business but if everybody thought like that, our economy would collapse no more walmarts, apple, microsoft, home depot, etc. because every single one of those businesses was started by somebody that beat the...
  11. W

    Stocks are random variables

    your premises are basically correct, to some extent but your conclusion is not deductively valid the market is, as you say, what other traders do. the market, by its nature, will also make the most radical (and profitable) moves when it catches most people on the wrong side of the movement...
  12. W

    If so many people are unsuccessful traders...

    you are wrong mm's are required by contract to offer a fair bid and offer (in other words take both sides of the markets at ALL times) do they do this perfectly all the time? no but it is a loser-trader meme and completely divorced from reality to blame your trading losses on MM's...
  13. W

    If so many people are unsuccessful traders...

    dtrader, no offense but this is a bigtime loser-meme people who think the reason they failed are that mm's are "gunning for their stops" please. spare me if you are so worried about, then trade dow index futures, since MM's are not going to move the entire dow jones futures contracts...
  14. W

    throwing in the fkin towel!!!

    if you want ot INVEST for the longterm, it is relatively simple *assuming the world does not end* there is not a single 20 yr period in HISTORY of the stock market in the US (well over 100 years btw) where a simple dollar cost averaging every month into a stock index (which is easy to do now...
  15. W

    My simple, yet profitable trading strategy

    this is a nice method one filter might be to look at short interest. ceteris paribus, stocks with high short interest are going to have more buying pressure than the average stock, given a catalyst you could overweight the stocks in the list that have higher short interest, for...
  16. W

    throwing in the fkin towel!!!

    "so all u people with a edgu-ma-cation, use your common sense and wake the frig up! you will FAIL! 9 outta 10 do... what are the odds u being that one ? huh.. com'on... who u kiddin?" clearly, you have to be willing to risk capital to find out. i did so, and succeeded. most will...
  17. W

    Stocks are random variables

    he's basically using an argument from authority "phd's say" why CARES who is saying it? the issue is the theory, not its pedigree academics are frequently wrong , and this is ESPECIALLY true in "soft sciences" like econ and social work, etc. i gave already several examples of academic...
  18. W

    Stocks are random variables

    i am well aware of the peer reviewed studies the peers are ALL academics who don't know anything about TRADING peer review does not mean you are correct. it means important people in your field of ACADEMICS agree with you. the history of science (and calling economics a science is a...
  19. W

    Stocks are random variables

    as to the 4 handles comment nobody is arguing that the market is not VERY efficient that's not the point if there is SOME inefficiency, then there is opportunity for EDGE the market is not PERFECTLY efficient i trade FOMC all the time in index futures. it is very profitable. the...
  20. W

    Stocks are random variables

    look dood. efficient market theory is a joke. it's right up there with phlogiston, alchemy, tabula rasa gender construction, and other academic myths that gain credence among people in ivory towers who know nothing about trading. i don't have to read (another) book to know EMT is bogus...
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