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They are all of the same subset of days. X axis is % change over the designated time period following the NL I filtered for, Y axis is count. Having said that, I'm not naïve so right now I'm trying to find my mistake.

So I was playing with some filters on gold NLs and found some very promising ones based on that scatter graph I posted. Took same filters and applied them to ES without any tweaks. First time I've messed with ES at all really, and got these results. :) I'm going to look through and make sure...

Here is a scattergraph of short NL on gold vs 3 day pct change. Of the greatest interest I think is the noticeable lack of big down moves with a NL > 5, and a less noticeable lack of big up moves with a NL <-4.

So I was able to code the NL scoring and I ran it for a variety of OR's and trading hours and than ran ran some correlation analysis on all those scores vs a variety of % changes in the underlying IE change tomorrow, 3 day, 7 day change etc... Some interesting takeaways... 1. The numberline...

Do you know if there is some kind of database available that gives the financial events that took place that day with time?

Anyone have thoughts on big stuff like fed rate change and acd tools? When we get large one day volatility following a rate change it kind of makes sense to me to put new a levels around that day and use it like I would a monthly.

X axis is GC range during US trading hours, Y axis is 820 5 minute opening range. I don't really see anything of interest as far as predicting session volatility.

I think it has been agreed on for years in this thread that the strategy in the book isn't a functional strategy. I haven't seen anyone on here propose using the stops as described in the book. They might work for trading into a position you intend to hold for weeks or longer. For shorter...

I believe gold has the least inputs as far as what effects price, making it easier to analyze and more predictable. I also used to be a bullion and coin dealer so have a decent understanding of the market, and still do some trade of the physical. I'm also learning programming right now so I'm...

I agree with both your points with a caveat. We can't necessarily trust volume because for example in gold the London session is by far the highest volume market. I don't have it handy but I found an academic paper on the gold market that showed that the US market clearly is where the majority...

Now that I'm on a computer I'll give you a better answer. I hate typing on a smart phone. I have read the ACD book several times. His reasoning for opening ranges is that they are significant because they hold the highs and lows more than they should. He sells his data and for each product...

Also note the increase at 1000. I don't daytrade so don't follow news releases much. This makes me wonder if there are 10 am releases that are important to gold. If so, and we filtered only for these days, would we find a different opening range time to be suitable for these days only?

I'm not trying to prove or disprove ACD. I'm a believer already. I'm showing that a distribution doesn't necessarily mean what we think it does. My output that only includes data from 1100 shows this. For example, try cutting your gld data to start at noon EST and see how it looks. I can...

So here are some things I am considering now. 1. Clearly the 0820 open is important. 2. Is big money also flowing on a midnight based cycle, and an 1800 based cycle, or are these spikes based on random walk and the cycle that my data uses to declare a daily high and low? 3. If the first...

So I got some code working and have some interesting results. This is GC top is time highs are found, bottom is time lows are found. Hours are 0820 to 1600. Looks pretty good. But next is 1100-1600. Hmm. Finally 0000-2359. I think this shows that we need to take the nature of random...

Will do, thanks!

I would like to know how to use it correctly if you don't mind sharing.

Thanks for that info. I'm going to keep that in mind as I work on my analysis.

I agree 110% on the significance of the open range. It's the heart my trading and something my own analysis confirms. I am just not sure on the importance of the size of that range each day. I am learning a programming language so I can answer these questions. That's how important it is to...

I can think of two reasons for this. One is that a smaller opening range is more likely to result in a trend day. The other possibility is that because the OR is smaller, a solid A is more likely to be made simply because the A level is closer. It is something I have performed some crude...