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That would be about 8% down from here, so not an outrageous possibility (I have no idea what it will do, just saying an 8% drop after this run wouldn't need a "the sky is falling" scenario).

@schizo What's your take on this market? Fundamentally I don't see how it can go (significantly) up, but if volatility is highest at the turn of trends (and lowest during continuations), if this pops out of this range, I might dip my toes in the water (long).

Chinese New Year coming up! Year of the Dragon! Buy, buy, buy! Also, snow(balls) + derivatives = what could go wrong? Do let me know if you go long :D

In case some of you haven't watched it yet, I totally recommend this drama/comedy/documentary: This Is Not Financial Advice Original title: The Meme Economy https://www.imdb.com/title/tt14076326/ :D

Sorry, Schizo, I thought it had finally started going down (it wasn't a jab at you). I have mixed feelings on this one. Diversifying actually increases the likelihood of losing (some) money and makes it harder to hit home runs. But of course, on the other side, when properly done, it...

Yes, I'm back into trading (again be advised I'm a contrarian indicator :D). I used to trade mostly ES, CL and ZB - net profitable but if you factor in the cost of opportunity in terms of both time and risk-free returns in other investments, a pyrrhic victory. Now I'm back, better capitalized...

Wisely spoke, Laissez Faire, thank you for the implied advice. Nice reentry, by the way.

Hi Laissez Faire. Good data = we go up, because data is good, ok Bad data = we go up, because the FED will lower rates, aha... Great data = we faint down, because now the FED will not lower rates for a while (which will entail a recession later in the year, according to Schizo and others), but...

Congratulations to whoever bought the freaking dip. Me no comprende.

Same with Google :D

Anyone trading this? I was hoping for it to go a bit lower (particularly after yesterday's FED) before buying for a swing position, but it seems this is another train I missed. :(

Is there any obvious reason to be short here? (other than intraday, that is) (And yes, I think the market in general is overbought and I would love an orderly pullback to buy some stock for the middle term, but...)

Same, same, but this one should not have a paywall: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/31/business/china-censorship-economy-markets.html

Negative Takes on China’s Economy Are Disappearing From the Internet Chinese authorities warn against denigrating the economy and urge officials to highlight its ‘bright prospects’ https://www.wsj.com/world/china/china-economy-censorship-internet-4d0372b8 (Paywall) a small taste:

This happens with stocks all the time (I'm also on IB), but to be honest, I had never seen it with futures. ??? (On my IB screen I have 3930 EUR for shorts and 3475 EUR for longs, but this may be due to USD<>EUR rounding/conversions).

A bit early (in hindsight), but good idea, well played.

@Buy1Sell2, I agree with your view on PRM being the only true [*permanent*] edge, fear-driven breakeven stops and premature (vs. the plan) profit taking, but do you not add to winning positions? Do you *never* scale out (or scale down in rallies, scale up in pullbacks). No trailing stops once...

? Tens of thousands of daily volume. Yes, tiny compared to ES, NQ, 6E, etc., but enough liquidity, one or two ticks spreads, etc. And most importantly, imho, it offers an answer to Randalli's problem.

What about Schizo's target? :p [Edit: it's just one Roosevelt/Reagan away :D] I always enjoy your statistics, Laissez Faire, but in this particular case (Presidential elections), I think that the sample is too small to be significant for trading. I guess it has a lot of entertainment value...