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  1. Picaso

    Learn To Take Losses

    Yes, but what's your win/loss ratio? (just a rhetorical question)
  2. Picaso

    The Psychologist Who Turned the Investing World on Its Head

    Bis vincit qui se vincit in victoria :)
  3. Picaso

    Strategy talk: A One-Dimensional Volatility Skew

    Thank you for the informative and detailed post.
  4. Picaso

    Cocoa futures

    As I understand it, the article refers to producers SELLING, not SELLING SHORT. They are selling the beans they already have or will soon have. The problem for them is the timing, because they are not allowed to deliver the physical product until the settlement date... meanwhile, they still need...
  5. Picaso

    Tesla-the future

    Congrats on your life-changing profits :) I wish I had bought Tesla in 2019 (got distracted with other matters) IMHO, leaving aside the technical (as in hardware/software, not chartings) aspects, Tesla's margins are going down the drain, as SunTrader mentioned. BYD and other Chinese carmakers...
  6. Picaso

    Cocoa futures

    You're probably right, but I was thinking the same when it was at 6500... Right, @schizo ? :p
  7. Picaso

    ES Journal - 2023/2024

    All hail the master of the BTFD! (congrats)
  8. Picaso

    (Non-political question) Anyone planning to short DJT?

    This is not a political question, about whether you love Trump or hate him, just about the stock valuation in the middle term. I see the trend is up in the market, but the bear-ssimist in me thinks we're in bubble territory, so I'm looking for a few stocks to short, no yet, but when/if the...
  9. Picaso

    Learn To Take Losses

    I think someone referred to this (for entries) as "negative selection", that is, if you use limit (or stop) orders for your entries X ticks away from the current price, then 100% of the times when the trade is going to work inmediately your order doesn't get filled, whereas when the trade isn't...
  10. Picaso

    ES Journal - 2023/2024

    @Buy1Sell2, is that 5600, give or take a few points? @theapprentice, is that what you have in mind as well, 5600-ish?
  11. Picaso

    Vote: Who thinks S&P500 will reverse trend in the next 10 days (2 weeks)?

    @Laissez Faire, I agree with what you say about people selectively posting their trades after the fact, on paper accounts, etc., but I can confirm that @schizo has been posting trades in real time for more than 15 years, with targets and stops, win or lose, sometimes trading embarrassingly...
  12. Picaso

    ES Journal - 2023/2024

    It's very easy to get played by this market, both if you think that this is way overbought and cannot last any longer and if you think this is the new normal and the market will never go down hard again. I feel your pain :D
  13. Picaso

    Will Cocoa Price Ever Come Down?

    In general, the more expensive the chocolate, the less it's affected by the price of raw materials. Salaries and general inflation (and just people's willingness to keep buying overpriced chocolate, coffee, clothes, cars, houses...) probably have a larger effect on prices. But yes, it's a hell...
  14. Picaso

    Tips for pajama traders trading on their phone

    Go big or go home! :p https://altwork.com/products/altwork-signature-station Meanwhile, I'm moving to an electric standing/sitting desk.
  15. Picaso

    ES Journal - 2023/2024

    I'm assuming you mean L 5123
  16. Picaso

    The Dream

    IMHO, now it's not a good time to either 1) quit a job (that might not be there in a year if you want it back), or 2) rely on a repeat of the last 8 months of trading performance (which, regardless of whether the market ends up or down, will probably look very different). I share your pain and...
  17. Picaso

    ES Journal - 2023/2024

    https://gemini.google.com/app The stock market's losses during the COVID-19 lockdowns were significant, though the impact varied based on the specific index and timeframe considered. Here's a breakdown: Global Impact: S&P 500: Lost 34% of its value between February 18, 2020, and March 23...
  18. Picaso

    ES Journal - 2023/2024

    My new AI overlord says: The biggest one-day loss Percentage: Dow Jones Industrial Average: 22.6% on October 19, 1987, also known as "Black Monday." S&P 500: 20.9% on October 19, 1987. Point Changes: Dow Jones Industrial Average: 2,997 points on March 16, 2020, during the initial market...
  19. Picaso

    ES Journal - 2023/2024

    That was a hell of a trade, @schizo, congrats. :)
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