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  1. Picaso

    ES Journal - 2023/2024

    Who wants to buy the dip with SMCI? (Down 22%)
  2. Picaso

    ES Journal - 2023/2024

    So far it seems to me people (and funds) are just being cautious, locking up some gains and reducing exposure in case things get ugly in the Middle East. Not saying the market in general, and AI in particular, is/was not overbought, but I don't see a Nasdaq-2000 bubble there.
  3. Picaso

    ES Journal - 2023/2024

    Sorry, man, there should be a "dislike" button :( May I ask how do you arrive at your 10 point stop? Is it based on volatility, your risk tolerance, some price level? As for me, I'm getting mixed signals, but I'll be looking for (short term) longs above 5075 and shorts below 5065. Unlikely to...
  4. Picaso

    ES Journal - 2023/2024

    Mmm... I'm not sure, maybe because my European stock portfolio was up today and I thought we were due for a bounce (I really don't think that the sky is falling, fine by me if we drop some more, but as someone else said somewhere this week, it's better to have a strong economy with higher...
  5. Picaso

    ES Journal - 2023/2024

    OK, so the bad news is that - totally ignoring my previous post :D - I came to the market today with a strong bullish bias... The good news is that since everything was screaming "short" (EMAs on 3 timeframes, downward momentum picking up, almost all stocks on my watchlist in the red), I...
  6. Picaso

    Larry Williams

    I'd buy your book. :) I wouldn't buy a system, chatroom, etc., but a book, sure, you must have interesting stuff to tell.
  7. Picaso

    ES Journal - 2023/2024

    I was re-reading Street Smarts by Linda Raschke and this touched a nerve :D "Your biggest enemy in trading is going to be a directional bias, an opinion about market direction ... whether yours, a broker's or a friend's. Shut it out! Learn to concentrate on the "right-hand side" of the...
  8. Picaso

    ES Journal - 2023/2024

    Daily ATR14 is at almost 70 points now, nice range :D
  9. Picaso

    ES Journal - 2023/2024

    I went to get a sandwich and we got a two-way return 40 point move, wtf... :D
  10. Picaso

    ES Journal - 2023/2024

    Thank you, I was asking about the R/R because I know you normally have tight stops, but lately seem to be capturing 20+ points, so I didn't see the need to be so aggressive trailing stops. If you're targeting 1-2 R/R, then it makes more sense.
  11. Picaso

    ES Journal - 2023/2024

    Nice entry. @Laissez Faire, you seem to do a lot of backtesting. Have you backtested if trailing stops in general and trailing stops to BE in particular is helping or hurting your performance? Edit: is your default R/R about 4 or 5 to 1? FWIW, I do tend to move the stop to BE very quickly...
  12. Picaso

    Vote: Who thinks S&P500 will reverse trend in the next 10 days (2 weeks)?

    Good call/instinct, even if a tad bit early
  13. Picaso

    Time to sell Nvidea? Meta and Google announce they'll make their own "in-house AI chips"

    If/when the general market turns back up, I'm buying Nvidia, hopefully at better prices and p/e ratios. Now it's likely to correct more than the market, so maybe some good opportunities for shorts, but I don't daytrade or short stocks, only futures. Stocks are my lazy trader instrument :D
  14. Picaso

    ES Journal - 2023/2024

    Sorry, man, but you had a really good start today
  15. Picaso

    ES Journal - 2023/2024

    Yesterday, from High to Low we had about 100 points. Today I'd say we're going to have a bit larger range, and there seems to be a bit of air below so we may kiss/break 5100 Edit: I don't think we're going to collapse or anything, but some permabulls buying the dip yesterday must be starting...
  16. Picaso

    ES Journal - 2023/2024

    IMHO, no yet Edit: but what do I know, good luck
  17. Picaso

    ES Journal - 2023/2024

    Nice trade, particularly because it seemed you had a bullish bias for the day, congrats. All-in, all out?
  18. Picaso

    ES Journal - 2023/2024

    5128 is less than -1% from the open 49 34, I understand means 5149 and/if then 5134, so bracketing your "Let's change that to 5140" No muy locos, me think Edit: not a permabull, but it's a testament to this market's bullishness that we are down (checks notes) -0,20% and everyone is "oh, my...
  19. Picaso

    ES Journal - 2023/2024

    Just trying to save face... Or trying to make them complacent and setting them up for a trap... Or... Who the hells knows :D
  20. Picaso

    Forever Bull Market

    In the long run we're all dead. :p Also, in the long run the Japanese stock market just made new highs... after only 34 years (since December 1989)... without adjusting for inflation
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