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Well, however you end up doing the defining, I agree with your approach of focusing on a narrow set of trades, rather than spreading yourself thin counting waves down at the subminuette level and trying to trade those wave counts.

So, are your entries the tick above or below what you consider the high or low of "wave 2", with stops at the low or high of "wave 2"? I can see that being consistent with a 45% win rate, yet being profitable due to the risk-reward dynamics of the set-up. If more e-wavers took such a disciplined...

The variations are fixed in the way that Elliott Wave is fixed into patterns like flats, triangles, etc. Only, instead of a few patterns like Elliott Wave, I have 55 of them and there is no subjectivity involved in interpreting them, so that, unlike e-wave, any two people using my form of...

So you make 8 unplanned trades for every planned trade? Is this typical? Even 1 unplanned trade for every planned trade is a recipe for disaster since, I assume, the reason the trades are unplanned is because you don't have a strategy for managing them once they are entered and you are just...

I agree that the problem of what can you actually know about the markets is central to any kind of attempt to assess your risk of failure once you go live or once you continue to trade a system which is in a drawdown mode. Still, it seems to be the prudent thing to do to explore all avenues...

In the case of (a), how would you define "good" trades? If I were defining it, I would define it not just as winning trades of various sizes, but as losing trades in which you "lost well". What that would tell me is that the system had an objective way of "cutting your losers" in a way that...

Hmm, maybe the reviewer didn't quite get the point, which is always possible. Your argument about outliers is interesting to me because one of the things I consistently see (doesn't mean it's correct, obviously) is that if you are doing more of a trend-following strategy, you want to see...

Fair point. I was not being inclusive in my comment on the type of system profile which would be indicative of a highly successful trader, since a very high winning percentage combined with wins and losses of approximately equal size would also be highly profitable.

Right. After I posted that question, I realized that something needed to be said about losers. My guess is that the number of "big" losers, in most or all successful systems, would be smaller than the number of "big" winners and that should be reflected in the back-testing.

I agree that there is little that can be called valid "theory" in interpreting trading results, partially because there's nothing quite like trading to serve as a model for interpretive methodologies and because the market doesn't follow the laws of nature or physics. That said, if it...

Even if this is true, you are still left with the fact that identifying a legitimate pattern in real-time is an exercise in probability. In other words, the only way this would matter is if someone had 100% accuracy in identifying the pattern, which would be very unlikely. Even then, a...

I was reading a review of Aronson's book on evidence-based TA and the reviewer stated that one sign that data mining bias was not present in an optimized backtest would be that there were few outliers in the backtest results. I take this to mean that your backtest should show that your...

I don't think you have to predict magnitude, but you have to be able to stay on board until a trend is done. If you can do that without getting out too soon, you will be fine.

Certainly I'm sure your experience is valid, but if you look at what I said about setting up a trust to trade the strategy, you can get around some of these issues. Rather than charge a "price" for the software, you agree with the buyer to set up a fund, with some preset minimum amount of...

Thanks for the input. I think it's less that I'm overvaluing personal trading and more that I don't know if any value is placed on it. It sounds like it would be minimal and even then only if accompanied by some other experience that qualified you for a gig. Hey, I know that if some trader tried...

The afternoon can set up some nice runs into the close and even overnight, although if you are solely a day trader, the overnight aspect might not be relevant. The decision should ultimately be based on whether or not you can find a positive expectancy strategy. If you can't don't trade even...

It's pretty well-known that Generations X and Y will not have the same educational attainments or living standards as the Baby Boomers, so, clearly, regardless of whether or not their "ancestors" did x,y or z, these generations are not able to carry the ball forward. I blame the fact that they...

The dregs of American society drag down the averages such that it seems like we have worse results. Yes, those dregs are legal citizens, so it's not as if we can't include them in the overall totals, but, realistically, if they were to disappear tomorrow, the US would fare far better in those...

It's not that you can ONLY average down. You could very well choose to average up, although that would decrease the size of your average winner and increase the size of your average loser. Since there is a lot of room to do that before the strategy became strictly break-even, one could very well...

I always know the price at which I want to get in or out of a trade. Whether that price gets hit in the minutes after news gets released or not is irrelevant to me. The only thing I worry about with news is the market gapping over my stop limit orders in a bad way. If I miss a trade because...