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29141 in the money puts. Only 1146 out of the money puts. 645 in the money calls.

Something people may not be thinking about. What if RINO keeps it halted until after options exp is over? Right now there are outstanding puts that expire on Friday for 2.914M shares (in the money). (7 strike and up) The put buys probably imply the market makers for these options are net...

I passed CFA L1 and am working on #2. (and in an MBA program at the moment) This knowledge is great, but doesn't help speculate on charts. That said, I think you are probably spot on concerning two groups of traders. The ones that feed money to the market (your first group), and the ones...

Actually, EU is the largest trade partner of China. By strengthening the euro vs. everything else (particularly with respect to the dollar), they are increasing demand for their (Chinese) exported products. Makes perfect sense. A weak euro kills their export market just as much if not more...

"Rigged" implies the players that caused the market crash had a collective goal to raise risk premiums, and in fact had short longer term exposures. If it was a "screw-up" that these players showed their hand to everyone in an obvious way, the markets by definition were not rigged, as it...

in California, San Diego at least: For the last 2 yrs, many REOs could/can be had for 8-9% cap rates (usually in the 100-200k price range though). 300s and up+, cap rates fall substantially. This all supports the premise that mid and high end housing has a long way to fall. And by the way...

What about overweight and physically repulsive people with broken families? Often these conditions are self reinforcing. Darwin speaking up, I guess?

Look at the 30 yr bond and the Fed Funds. Put in your opinion. One day event? Or beginning of a new trend for mounting inflation expectations ?

Here's a spreadsheet I just threw together to calculate rent vs own. Red fields are the ones you plug in your numbers. 20% downpayment assumed, and opportunity cost of putting that downpayment up is considered. Assumes prop tax, insurance, and maintenance all increase with inflation, as well...

Trading/investing is like driving in a blizzard with 0 visibility, generally.

By the way I like your 'investment plan' on the other thread in econ ... buy out of the money puts financed by income to hedge for shocks. My alternative suggestion is something like 30 year treasuries 80%, 10% gold or silver bullion, the other 10% in gold/commodity stocks and no derivatives...

Buying some gold calls and treasury puts is the call. It seems like such a ridiculous rumor that you won't pay much for the bet, and can take it off cheaply the day or two after the meeting on the 17th.

To 20000 quickly. This is equivalent to printing $1T and putting it straight into people's hands. The first $1T didn't work (in stoking inflation) because it went straight to shore up bank capital. This would surely amp up consumer demand like we've never seen before. As well, the...

This would be very inflationary. I doubt it happens, mainly because we've seen zero substantial job-related stimulus proposals up to this point. You don't go from proposing near $0 spending to a few trillion in one swoop. (Also, as a solvent mortgage holder, I would be -very- pissed to...

This has to be one of the better threads I've seen lately on ET...

Autocorrelation problems. Low income / political instability / resource limitations -> disease -> poor performance > etc etc The people who tend to get sick are poor. And poor tend not to have great access to education (a resource that costs $$$). Sickness helps reinforce lack of...

I agree, or at least by next week. This 'correction' is all about retouching the flash crash low. Strong euro is telling me there is nothing to fear, not at these valuations. Perfect for options exp at least.

What's the point of this (besides trying to find someone who has no idea what they are doing)? Looks like implied vol is around 29 right now on the ES options which are open to trade right now.

Steel prices up. Stocks like MT doing just fine. Utilization way up for next Q. In fact, Europe not being vertically integrated means settling ore prices bodes well for margins as well. Stocks like Ford, Best Buy up, etc. Last time it dropped, the right thing to do was buy. Feels...