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FWIW, as an update and some idle thoughts... In the last month or so, network hash rate on lite coin has ramped up from ~30k to ~80k. 50K MH increase in hash rate works out to about sales of 69K AMD R9 280x equivalent cards (a little over $20MM worth of sales of AMD video cards). This works...

I recommend a sampling across a few geographic locations to get a fair read.

It depends on the JCP you visit, just as it depended on the BBY you visit. The sales numbers speak for themselves, no doubt they have a lot of work to do. But that only tells you the upside.

I'll second this and actually say this is a great entrance, better than when the stock was lower in the 6s. The reason being this move is on worries over the SEC inquiry. But we already have visibility that sales -are- recovering and the worst cashflow risks are gone. I'll admit I was...

I think the only possibility bitcoin or litecoin survive is if the regulators of some major domestic sovereign officially sanction the currency as acceptable and exclusive in the domain, and likewise prosecute cases of exchange between state-fiat and cryptocurrency that isn't sanctioned. If the...

exactly, no exclusivity. people will get wise to this when the fear stage kicks in.

Not understanding its valuable features? I fully comprehend that you can use it to buy drugs and smuggle money, and there is some dominance in that domain. But these coins are vulnerable to someone coming up with a business that achieves the same goals without placing value in the medium of...

exactly. If you look, this is much sillier than the tulip bubble. Just think of it, the median priced home in the US ~$200K can be purchased for 200 Bitcoins. 200 Bitcoins on 1/1/2011 could be purchased for 0.299998 each, or approximately $60. Created out of thin air with no/little...

It's the purest evidence there is that investor expectation dominates as a price determinant, not the flow so much. Remember the supply available to a market at any time is outstanding stock/inventory of treasuries (total outstanding) + marginal flow. You can see even with $45B a month of QE3...

Not that I do it, but I backtested a while ago. on asset classes, only be long in when price is > 10month MA. Reduces drawdowns in half. Tests out in high yield and equities quite well.

But what happens to those treasuries once these emerging countries have already exhausted their reserves ? They are left with no reserves and nothing to sell, and an even less valuable currency.

Banks aren't doing the bulk of the lending. It's the Fed (look at the multiplier)- by design... with interest on reserves policy. If you want proof: http://www.newyorkfed.org/householdcredit/2013-Q2/index.html Household debt has increased barely $60B since the QE started. House debt...

I imagine the biggest (or one of the biggest) pathway of this base money into the economy right now is through the Fed's MBS buying program: Fed -> MBS/Agency debt -> Fannie Mae/Freddie/etc -> Bank/Lender -> Borrower (not really...) -> House seller. I believe this is probably the most...

Those % changes look erroneous. Repost with start prices... Also don't forget to factor out dividends as well. I forget if on 3rd Fri or end of month options, but there are some dividend days on opex days for SPY -- already priced into options.

doh doh doh... the tea-party anti-fed-money-printer group misses the point. The Fed prints because that is by design. Banks don't multiply money (in a significant manner) anymore. They merely intermediary base money. Base money is the new M3. And every century banker (worth his...

You've already blown up. Many of us have been there. Let's say you have 18% remaining... Odds are 100% right now you'll feel more regret by quitting when you are down rather than giving the 18% away. So basically, get prepared to have lost it all. First thing you need to do is stop...

JGBs starting to err towards complacency again. Insure 1MM notional ATM for $3500 for 10 days (and that includes through this Fed meeting!)... (vol is around 4.1%) Before all of this recent market turbulence, vols were at 2.5%... (oh how I dream of 2.5% again. front puts were ~$2k/mo 1%...

Can we get to 99+ by close? I say we get at least 98.50... (seems like one of those moments when every hedge fund might be scratching head thinking time to reverse [jpy jgb nikkei etc])

All is well if "short end" = 2 years and under. But 10 yrs is a lot of duration - the central bankers are just complacent about it. If you are trying to achieve 2% annualized inflation in 3 years, then do the math even with a discrete switch at 3 yrs: (1.0* 1.0 * 1.0 * 1.02 * 1.02 * 1.02...

The demographics have driven the zero-growth of the last years. On the topic of inevitable destruction of Japan and hyperinflation --some of you guys forget: Deficit spending is just a wealth transfer from the government to the people. This is what has happened very slowly over the last few...