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Martinghoul.. I've been a fan of your richness of knowledge for a while. You're one of the only contributors here who has that. Curious, did you ever get a CFA?

It's very easy. Most of the people here are unemployed, and unemployed people typically don't feel very good about themselves. Which of course means they often aren't very nice. Also low barrier to entry to filter out the riff raff explains it as well. Same as yahoo message boards... Go...

400% wage inflation over 10 yrs. That is 15% y/y compounding inflation. Not to disagree its a great price level hedge (I have some rentals myself), but I think this forecast is a tad ambitious.. But ya never know, right? In a year or two, we'll quickly know. If the Feds monetize...

The buyers were 'advised' to the extent of those boilerplate 'This investment has risks' statements in every single investment product prospectus known to man.

Sounds good. got any links? sdlookup.com has a decent database ... under 100k is tough. You might be able to find something in 92069 (San Marcos) - look at the mission park condos (conversions). http://www.sdlookup.com/Real_Estate-San_Marcos-Homes_For_Sale-92069 These rent for about...

A lot of those properties have back tax liens and fines that make these properties appear not so reasonable. Those numbers have to be added back into the purchase price.

I think Japan is on the verge of a currency crisis... US dollar denominated nikkei futures would be the way to approach it.

He's basically in Hugh Hendry's camp. Interesting. I wonder how he reconciles the massive funding needs of the US govt over the course of the next few years and being long treasuries (assuming he is buying duration).

Ok. Let's put together a list of possibly vulnerable Chinese lenders, residential home builders, etc. Shortable US ADRs preferred.

I have a hard time believing retaildaytrader is Jefferson Krull. Can the real Jefferson Krull make a post just to deny this.

So now that I make the point that losses are likely realtime much less than this chart, the best you come up with is the "unknown derivative leverage" argument? The delevering happened. DTC data showed outstanding cds/etc contract by 50% (something like 60T to 30T) when this happened. That...

These charts are meaningless. They are based on data before mortgage modifications + obama HARP etc refi boom. Not to mention that many of these underwater borrowers may have preemptively walked away -already-. Oh one more thing ... Just count the aggregate values of those #s ... something...

The problem was too much leverage. Now if you increase the base money supply and decrease the leverage to result in the same net money supply, you are actually fixing the problem without the devastating price collapse. That's the game.

That's not a 3% return. You have to adjust for expected value of the loss as well as the gain. ie, 70% chance of keeping all of the money (3%) + 30% of losing a lot more.... ie: .7 * 11000 + .3 * -110000 = 7700 - 33000 = Expected gain = -25300. Fill in the blanks with proper...

they do in a sense, but high interest rates depress valuations. And more inflation requires investors receive more return (higher interest rates), thus lower stock prices.

When you give it back next week, will she tap you on the ass before she goes to sleep? ;)

Fascinating counterpoint: Substantial inflation occurring in CPI will be the end of gold. Deflationary #s will be extraordinarily stimulating for gold price. Interesting dynamic, eh.

The same holds true for fiat currencies. Its worth is defined by the confidence of the holders in the asset. Gold = useless = many currencies = toilet paper. (but yet gold does not equal toilet paper, however you can't wipe your ass with gold and expect to feel nearly as clean. btw, baby...

I'll chime in - I'm not intimately familiar, but my reading has guided me to this as the catalyst for the unusual swap spread price: http://acrossthecurve.com/?p=8933 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/http://crookery.blogspot.com/2008/11/mrs-watanabe-strikes-again-usd-swaps.html .....

abu dhabi paying off dubai debts.