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  1. N

    Is the crypto winter over?

    Ok... all sell orders in SOL have been cancelled. The market is just too strong. Sure, it can hit the high of $186 and bounce off, but the fact that it already retraced almost the entire drop is incredible. When looking at BTC, if this rally continues today, it will be a slightly smaller drop...
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    Is the crypto winter over?

    You do have a point. The rally yesterday was incredible, and we are nowhere close to ATH, and the bull market is just getting started. Plus, its holding up incredibly well right now given the BTC drop. Thinking about cancelling some of those sell orders that are lower down.
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    Is the crypto winter over?

    That's fair, and we do have to give your view a bit of thought. But what I keep seeing is that the flows are not slowing down, and they are much bigger than anyone expected. I am also learning that many advisors are taking their time with jumping in, so its not like we are running out of...
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    Is the crypto winter over?

    Really?? How? I thought it was an ETF based on bitcoin futures, so I'm not understanding where the dividend comes from. But if this explains the price discrepancy, and when you add it back in the price tracks properly, then that is really good!
  5. N

    Is the crypto winter over?

    Oh, and technically, this drop isn't nearly as large as the earlier one on March 5 yet, and that came off an initial rejection at ATH. So I guess as ugly as it is, its not actually ugly.
  6. N

    Is the crypto winter over?

    I'm focused more on the narrative. If ETFs continue to buy and have net inflows, then price has to go higher. Saylor is also buying again this weekend I think. Even if it takes a month to break 73k, I think there is nothing wrong with that. I hardly doubt that the top for this cycle is...
  7. N

    Is the crypto winter over?

    IBIT would have the best spreads I think since they have the biggest volume. And my thinking is that if I'm caught in a drawdown, like now, if its not a leveraged play, it will just come back. So just hold it. Of course I've also missed out on big profits over just holding because of the...
  8. N

    Is the crypto winter over?

    I feel the same thing. I had to get out of my 2x BITX ETF in one account because I didn't want to see it drop. These leveraged plays have downsides. But if I'm trading these new ETFs with so little fees, I doubt I would be worried about even a trip down to 50k because I know its coming back...
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    Is the crypto winter over?

    CTOLarsson also just posted a super helpful video on trading with a DEX. I didn't realize it could be so easy. I don't want to turn into a degen trader, but watching stuff go up 10x-100x and missing it all sucks. I mean why not just throw $100 at some of this stuff and see what happens?? Of...
  10. N

    Is the crypto winter over?

    I was shocked as well considering it dropped hard. But say you say, the pump is even higher. So the question is, what to do? I'm already in profit given all my scale-ins lower down, and $200 will likely be hit in days at this rate, although I would probably set the target at $198 or something...
  11. N

    Is the crypto winter over?

    Here is how its looking for me right now. No idea why those black triangles aren't green because they are all buy orders. My platform seems to have issues when I don't use OCO orders, so the red exits I think are thought of as shorts. Anyway.... you see the first exit at the red mark, then...
  12. N

    Is the crypto winter over?

    Is the correct answer just having resting limit orders all the way down?? :D I'm doing it with BITX, which is a bit problematic because its leveraged, but from my quick analysis, the problem only starts to arise after a very long holding period of several months. But I do think playing this...
  13. N

    Is the crypto winter over?

    Shorting bitcoin is very dangerous. The fact that there has been no retracement doesn't mean we are overdue for one. It could mean that we are nowhere close to fair value.
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    MSTR -- To get out or not...

    So just to make sure I got it right... you spend $40k for these options that at one point were worth only $10k, and you will take profit at $1m, so it will be a 25x trade for you.. correct? Have an awesome trip!
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    MSTR -- To get out or not...

    Hey John... if you don't mind answering, but maybe you already mentioned it, how much did you pay for your option that you are waiting to hit $1 million? And when did you buy it? Did you take into account your understanding of cycles and the halving in order to figure out a good expiration...
  16. N

    Is the crypto winter over?

    Yup, this totally makes sense. I have honestly been lucky by leaving so many bids in the market. Almost all have gotten hit and I was up in less than 24 hours... Then rinse and repeat. I realize there can be a 30% drop at some point, but I also don't expect it to stay down long. So as long...
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    Is the crypto winter over?

    We are getting close. I agree with everything you are saying. But I guess the best way to illustrate what I am saying is with an analogy of price controls. The government can set the price of bread let's say but a bakery cannot produce it because the cost of flour is more than the maximum...
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    MSTR -- To get out or not...

    After watching the recent WBD podcast with Samson Mow, I am more bullish than ever. There will likely be entire price levels that are totally skipped from my simple analysis. And also like he said, once it jumps up, it doesn't come back down. I think the cycle theory of expecting an 80% drop...
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    Is the crypto winter over?

    Right, but my point is if futures say price is 60k, but what if exchanges don't have any at that price? I thought the price is set by the prices at several exchanges. But you are suggesting the futures price can move independently of the exchange price. Futures never deal with delivery, but...
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    Is the crypto winter over?

    I wish they would manipulate down to 60k. I have plenty of buy orders waiting to get hit! If futures really do set the price, what happens when there is no spot available at that price?
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