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  1. M

    Taleb vs Assness on tail hedging and risk parity

    The big picture: Tail risk is sold by funds to post steady performance to attract AUM. Funds make a decent living from 2/20 because they risk customer money and not their own. When (I'm not saying if) they eventually blow up, fund manager has already bought his house in the Hamptons. This...
  2. M

    Taleb vs Assness on tail hedging and risk parity

    Look, I don't wanna continue the twitter flame war here on ET. We're not talking about knowledge - Taleb 100% knows a lot about options - we're talking about a sound investment approach. The options market does not underprice tail risk if you are looking at the bigger picture (aka. the +theta...
  3. M

    Taleb vs Assness on tail hedging and risk parity

    Look at the performance of universa investments. These guys are paying premium for 12 years straight...then one day they boast a 4000% return just to hibernate again. If they would not manage AUM, nobody made any money. Betting on tail risk is +EV but it scales horribly. If you have 100k and you...
  4. M

    Taleb vs Assness on tail hedging and risk parity

    I've read the entire flame war before Assness pulled out and it was hilarious to watch two airy fairy academics spitballing each other. But Taleb is a fking psycho. His books are good food for though but I would not trust him to handle a single cent of my money. His trading philosophy just...
  5. M

    Balanced and diversified FX management.

    He's contributing, you're heckling. I don't care if it's SIM or not, it's an interesting concept and different to the basic trendline/indicator/orderflow/politics/"quant" based bullshit the imbeciles on ET post all the time. This tickles my brain. So would you mind to shut up, pretty please...
  6. M

    Balanced and diversified FX management.

    P/L dynamics were mimicking a short gamma portfolio. The guy was very consistent with an infrequent but large drawdown. His results were in the 8-12% p.a. range in 2007-2011. He quit since he could not get enough AUM. Back then I was too stupid to understand the math behind it and I just...
  7. M

    Balanced and diversified FX management.

    Go ahead. I once had a money manager who used a similar strategy. He was betting on mean reversion of some sort, cannot remember how he did it, however
  8. M

    Balanced and diversified FX management.

    How do people get to the conclusion that it is just normal to post your real money accounts on public forums for everybody to see? Have you ever heard of privacy? It doesn't matter if his trades work or not, it's up to you to verify that. It's always the same bullshit. These lazy asses binge...
  9. M

    Bulls crushed, halving a nothing

    thb, I think it's a very goofy way of trading advanced strategies. The market making and arbitrage stuff is 100% BS, this kind of free money is long gone since HFT shops have taken over. I'd rather dive into the derivative space, especially options. From my understanding you're more of a...
  10. M

    CME - Why Smart Money Trades Spreads

    account size can be much lower with spreads depending on the market you trade. @bone what are span margins on Eurodollars these days? 150-500$ on inters? You don't need much of an account to swingtrade STIR spreads...with energy, things are different, tho.
  11. M

    PrimeXBT - Trade global markets with Bitcoin

    You're a sponsor, congratulations and welcome to ET. But can you explain to me, why it makes sense to trade Crypto - CFD's against a bucketshop when literally everything you need is 50 bucks in crypto to trade real products against a real counterparty with direct access to a real exchange...
  12. M

    Bulls crushed, halving a nothing

    Well, first of all thanks for initiating a civilised discussion. When you feel at home and have found a place in the US markets then of course you stick to it. Why would a baker scoff at a butcher because he's trading meat instead of wheat :D To adress your questions, I still trade US -...
  13. M

    Bulls crushed, halving a nothing

    I think you are confusing a very fundamental thing here. There are cryptocurrencies and there are tokens. The shills you are refering to are shilling tokens...but this has nothing to do with bitcoin :rolleyes: There is a legitimate price discovery taking place and the basic fundamental...
  14. M

    Bulls crushed, halving a nothing

    So it's basically what the FED is doing, just with a few digits less. I never understood why it would be a bad thing that a market is manipulated. Because to be very honest, there is no market being more manipulated and in a much more serious way than the US markets as a whole. Everybody knows...
  15. M

    Bulls crushed, halving a nothing

    I wonder why you still think I offered arguments. I did not and I do not. I know that you did not look into cryptocurrencies, thus all you say about this market is completly worthless. Aaand that's it. Why is that so hard to understand? For people who are interested, I posted a couple of bits...
  16. M

    CME - Why Smart Money Trades Spreads

    Truth be told, though I traded basically everything with every possible style, I found most success with relative value trading which spreads are more or less a subset of. Spread trading rewards proficiency and knowledge in a certain market and knowing it's fundamentals. Knowing where basis...
  17. M

    Bulls crushed, halving a nothing

    That's the spirit. One last note. DeFi is slow, I mean reeeeaaaly slow. When there was an 800ms execution of an option on a DEX that was considered so fast that it was tweeted. Pricing is absolute key here so make sure you get that down first. If you want to arb a swap vs. a synthetic swap...
  18. M

    Bulls crushed, halving a nothing

    Ah, right...I forgot that I had to open an account with a bank to swap my ETH for BTC. My bad :D Dude, I haven't used a single cent of fiat money for almost two years now for my crypto trading. WTF are you talking about? What a dork
  19. M

    Bulls crushed, halving a nothing

    Yes definitely, especially on the retail level. Crypto has not (yet) the infrastructure that is required for the big boys to jump aboard, although the derivative space has become competitive. The issue for US citizens is that no serious exchange would take them as customers, so what's left...
  20. M

    Bulls crushed, halving a nothing

    No you're not, stop lying to yourself. Nobody who needs to be convinced to look into opportunity has ever made any money in the market. I wonder why you are under the impression that we have to adress your points or somehow win an argument against you. You have no idea how this market works and...
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