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It's no one else's fault but your own if you went long at fresh lows and are now getting crushed. That's a big no-no. Fresh lows + rising IV = high probability of more fresh lows. last post (for today) :D

Very true. This is a slow motion slide. The sluggishness in the VIX tells you the speed of this drop. Thanks for the data.

This is part of the problem. Some people will pound the table and say it's all about advertising revenues, and exposure, blah, blah. Capitalism has found a way to bid up the price of earth, fire, wind, and water (sounds like a Captain Planet summons), and has taken to cyberspace. 500m dollars...

Nothing, you're forgetting that they hedge the cash index with the futures and visa versa.

To clarify: Giant bird with head in the sand = OSTRICH OSTRICH SPREAD = Shorting volatility near 52 week lows and being long of large, sandy holes.

Updated Pic

Looks like the small specs have been right at the beginning of a couple important trends. Maybe this is another that the little guy gets right. It also looks like the large specs have been long, and wrong, since right after the October meltdown. I wonder how that's working out for them.

Yes indeed. I think that it is important for people to remember that volatility begets volatility, and the VIX is still at historically elevated levels. 40 is the new 20 for the VIX, so I would be a buyer and not a seller of Vega at the lower 40 levels. This morning's action is still...

Good one! Hope you're joking.

VIX complacency strikes again! :eek:

that's gangsta

Being short volatility when the S&P is only 10 pts above 800 seems a little too contrarian, even for my tastes. When I see these periods of VIX complacency, it really gives me a creepy feeling that something ill is about to go down, but this is just my humble opinion. I guess we'll see.

Take the current rate of unemployment, and mulitply it by the current size of the labor force. Do the same for past unemployment rates that were high, multiplying those numbers by the actual size of the labor force. You might sing a bit of a different tune. Size of the labor force has grown...

Exactly, right JF. Assume a scenario where a beginning trader starts trading and loses all of his/her $30,000.00 trading capital. He/she vows never to trade again, but this loss will have to be written down at a rate of $3,000 a year for the next 10 years. That's the max writedown for capital...

Yen rolled over like a drunk sorority chick.

Feb 5th /LC action.

I think it will be good to see more of the US Blue Chip "weak hands" get exposed in the face of less 401K investment. Think about the majority of American 401K investing. People don't know where the hell to put their cash, so they fork it over to some massive retail brokerage unit that, by...

Yeah, selling puts in the face of rising volatility and a declining market is the absolute worst thing a trader could do here. It's the polar opposite of what one should do. I think the author of this thread must have gotten a little mixed up....or at least I'd like to think so.

hey ed, I am aware of the inverse relationship between the VIX and S&P. I was just wondering if you guys could decipher the magnitude of the coming volatility thrust. I know you guys can be pretty on point with your price projections. I just really wanted to see if there was a price/time...

I posted this over in the T.A. forum, deep inside the annals of the EWT thread (hardest working technicians on this board). I know that this doesn't necessarily pertain to meat, or many other commodities, but the VIX looks like it's setting up for a strong upleg. If this happens, the equity...