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Good poll. Corresponds to my rough guess that two-thirds to three-fourths of the posters here are not to be taken seriously. Mind you, I don't think the Fed should be in the business of setting interest rates. That's a free-market function. But I don't think they should be abolished. They are...

Shorting the dollar is the most popular trade on the planet. In 2000, when I started getting into gold in this cycle, when I told folks, they looked at me like I had two heads. These days, I say I'm a seller of gold and a buyer of US stocks, and I get the same look. And, looking at the posts...

Mayhaps a couple of you might want to wander over to the NBER site (use Google, I'm feeling too lazy to pull the link), where they keep the more-or-less official dates on the cycle here in the US, and realize that these days, the average cycle runs about 8, 9, 10 years even. In the middle of...

It was weak overall as a reaction, and I'll be net short, but not by much, over the next few days, more than likely. But the general tone is positive. If your time horizon is more than just a few days, as mine is in some of my accounts, and as stock trad3r's is, then once we get the pullback on...

What he said.

One of John Dizard's columns in the FT described Argentina perfectly. He was talking about a trading strategy for their bonds, and in parentheses he said "(Surely no one invests there?)" Perfect summation of the place.

This thread's still thrashing around? You guys are gonna make me have to be long tomorrow. :p

I do trade off of statistical stuff, including correlations, but I've been doing it for a real long time, and I know what the weaknesses are, as elaborated partially by QuantPlus. But what really gets these guys is that both in 1998 and just before this recent blowup, volatility was low. If you...

The statement is the key. Doesn't really matter how much they cut, the real question will be, are they done?

I'm going to have to start my own thread in this part of the ET world, one with actual economic ideas in them. The simplistic slogans that fly around here make me very impatient. I've seen good threads everywhere else but here, in Economics. This part seems to be used as a proxy for everyone's...

As for arrogance, they complained bitterly about Connally 36 years ago when he said that, and I'm sure there were plenty of people predicting gloom & doom for the US all through the Seventies. Yet here we are, and the US is still the largest economy, and the dollar is still the reserve...

MSFT, GOOG, EMC, VMW, CSCO, HP, SNDK: almost all have substantial overseas interests. But the majority of their activity happens in the US. France would kill to have these companies inside its borders. Just ask Sarkozy.

Global rebalancing. We have to export more, China has to consume more. Our exports are going up, hence the good MSFT earnings, which have nothing to do with US consumers, btw. Almost all of our tech cos reported blowout earnings, and that has to do with exports. Tech is what we export...

I do think there's something fundamentally wrong with the economy, however, someone had to take the other side of those GS trades. Now we know who.

Still lots of upside on this move. You could cut the skepticism with a knife. This is a bull market, period. What you bears are engaged in is a futile attempt to fight the Fed. I'd advise giving it up before you lose, but then I might not make the money I'd like to. So, keep it up. Really.

I'd have to look, but I think the S&P is below its peak back in 2000 right now, correct? So no, even long term, I don't think it's the longs who are cocky. I look at a lot of other sentiment indicators, and long-term, optimism is still declining from its 2000 peaks. From a sentiment POV, we're...

Before I joined here, I used to occasionally have the thought that rallies after big declines would happen because too many people were short, had made money being short, and were as complacent as longs would be after a big rally. After having hung out here for a while this year, I'm convinced...

...you left out rapidly increasing inflation, which is what my point was. This is caused by the PBOC buying up all those dollars to keep the exchange rate pegged.

Sure. One of those things that works until it doesn't. A lot of the money the Fed creates winds up in China, since their peg in effect gives them the same monetary policy as the US. All that inflation that everyone is expecting over here is mostly landing over there.

Because as of now the peg to the dollar still holds, and their currency has actually gone down against the euro, while of course only moving slightly up against the dollar. Rational response.