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Reaction higher. Wherever that settles, trading range between that level and the low set by the lows today, until the next breakout, which is certainly months away. I'd guess March or April at the latest. Direction of the breakout I lean bullish: it's still an election year, and every monetary...

Treasuries, gold, and utility stocks.

Fortunately for him, the volatility of gold is below some favorites of mine (for trading purposes) as NYX, LEH, or even C, on most days. So, he just might get out of this with something left, unless he leverages his ... errant judgement.

Gore jumps in, takes the Dem side. McCain or Giuliani, not sure which, somehow figures a way to take the Rep side. Disillusioned women and blacks stay home in record numbers. Gore wins by a nose. Mostly this is because Bloomberg runs, drawing votes away from the Rep side, even though he's a)...

...not to mention rule of law, and domestic tranquility.

The implicit assumptions just about everywhere around here are: a) we're in a recession, which would be bad, and b) the market will go down because of it. We may be in a recession; personally I think we are. But the world is quite literally awash in liquidity. The world, as we are...

:p

Why does this crap always show up in this place? Get a grip.

Eh, the div cut's priced in. I don't think anyone's expecting to actually collect 8% vig on that sucker. Net made money last week, but was expecting a stronger rally than we got before Friday's mini-disaster. This week should be a long one, at least for the first few days, just as...

I'd think 75, because as I have noted before, this is an election year, and if the Fed feels like they need to do a lot of easing, they will want to get it done before the election season is really under way, so as to maintain political neutrality. 50 may be the necessary compromise, because of...

MZM, Money of Zero Maturity, was meant to measure, accurately, true available liquidity. And the right way to measure this for forecasting purposes, is to take the percent change from a year ago. Here it is: [id]=MZM&s[1][transformation]=pc1"]MZM, percent change from one year ago Current...

Longer term (2 year time horizon, a la Security Analysis) you'd have to be nuts to be bearish, if you know what moves the markets. The range in which the markets have moved in the past year is exceptionally narrow, and that's almost always bullish. If it happens when sentiment is as awful as it...

James Grant described copper as "the metal with a PhD in economics." Chile's economy, meanwhile, is highly dependent on it. From Bloomberg: Chilean Stocks Tumble on Inflation, Pension Selloff Jan. 9 (Bloomberg) -- Chile's benchmark stock index slumped, deepening the decline in the...

So easily gulled. Four days into the year, and everyone figures it's doom & gloom from here on out. Fighting a lowering Fed in an election year, especially given the Chairman was hired by the guy in the Oval Office, is beyond suicidal.

Timeframe: daily swing. Figure on first part of the week being up in tech especially but accompanied by most of the rest of the market; down in gold. Not sure about second part of week, but right now I'm figuring on down by then, while gold goes back to its primary uptrend. Of course, which...

I have developed, over the years, a few different indirect ways of trying to detect large/insider buying, and I'm seeing strong signs of both in the financials in general and C in particular. However, these guys do trade with long timeframes, and I remember seeing or reading somewhere that...

Check that against the post-bubble (1980) history of gold stocks. Not sure about gold itself, but the best time to own the stocks is after the last Fed move down, and before the first Fed move up. Of course, you'd have to know ahead of time that the last Fed move down was in fact the last one...

Having to relocate because of a job is the bain of a lot of people's existence. Both my wife & I have portable professions, and as we live in a huge metro area, finding a new job within commuting distance is not as hard as it would be if we lived in a midsize city in the Midwest. Which makes...

Smells like....desperation.

Yup. Bears get all nippy on a downer like today, bulls get all hot on big days up like we had somewhere in there last week. Which is fine. Someone's gotta fund the market...