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  1. Sergio123

    The Commercial Real Estate Crisis that never happened..........

    People still consume music and movies....The data storage and bandwith requirements to consume that media previously consumed from CD's and DVDs has been moved elsewhere. Real Estate is certainty not a dead investment, IMO.
  2. Sergio123

    The Commercial Real Estate Crisis that never happened..........

    The XLRE chart looks like its gaining some steam.... Do you think diversified enough away from distressed office and retail properties?
  3. Sergio123

    Why is TLT and IWM Diverging?

    It broke to its 52 week. March to November '21 ATH?
  4. Sergio123

    Can anyone be my trading mentor? (short term trading)

    Things are changing. Better to do an ROI comparison on college costs vs a paid apprenticeship and investing (not day trading) in the stock market. It used to be that you would need to go to college just to give you the necessary knowledge to do an ROI. But now all of the information that you...
  5. Sergio123

    Hyper inflation in the US - yes or no?

    The issue isn't the amount of deterioration to the USD thus far. The real issue is that there is no good path to straighten out the ship. The best way might be to leave JObamala in there for Act#2 and let things course correct but then there will be alot more risks on the geopolitical front.
  6. Sergio123

    Hyper inflation in the US - yes or no?

    The only reason why the USD is not hyper inflated is because the USD is the global reserve currency. Those things are all deteriorating the global reserve status.
  7. Sergio123

    Hyper inflation in the US - yes or no?

    BRICS, Petrodollar, Fed Balance Sheet expansion, Wealth/Asset Concentration, Yield curve inversion, Confidence in political leadership, dwindling military recruitment. The signals are everywhere.
  8. Sergio123

    Hyper inflation in the US - yes or no?

    I actually wouldn't go so far to say technical hyperinflationary rates.....but higher inflation for the foreseeable future which in a few years will seem like hyperinflation.
  9. Sergio123

    Office vacancies set a new all-time high, ‘breaking the 20% barrier for the first time in history’

    It looks like corporations are vacating office space and commercial retail space in CA and NY in droves.
  10. Sergio123

    best options strategies for advanced beginners

    I would put myself into advanced beginner category. I would say trading 0 DTE bull spreads on QQQ. And/Or butterfly/condors on IWM. SPX, NDX, and RUT is for more advanced.
  11. Sergio123

    S&p 15,000 by 2030 ...unlimited free money ....200% return

    He is a simple guy..... The Fed will expand their balance sheet to the tune of about 20 Trillion at the next crash.
  12. Sergio123

    S&p 15,000 by 2030 ...unlimited free money ....200% return

    It probably is not going to be a straight line up to 15,000. There will be at least 1 other year like 2022.
  13. Sergio123

    S&p 15,000 by 2030 ...unlimited free money ....200% return

    I believe it.....Then its about that time for another major crash. .com, housing bubble, Covid.......2030 AI Bubble?
  14. Sergio123

    Why is TLT and IWM Diverging?

    I think that they may cut a quarter point this year. The real "easing" will be through tapering.
  15. Sergio123

    Why is TLT and IWM Diverging?

    EVs don't care. They laugh in the face of the Treasury market.
  16. Sergio123

    Why is TLT and IWM Diverging?

    It looks like uninversion is already underway to me. They must have rebalanced the Russell for it.
  17. Sergio123

    Why is TLT and IWM Diverging?

    I don't know...... Stocks were flat on the werk. IWM was the strongest index performer of the week with almost a 1% return. TLT down over 2% for the week. Started sliding down on Tuesday afternoon close to the close. Maybe just part of the stress test.
  18. Sergio123

    what happens if people managing ETF's 'collapse'?

    I see more advantages of owning and managing a portfolio of stocks, ETFs, REITS, MLPs, etc. for individuals. I don't see how individuals can compete against Black Stone and other institutional investors in the real estate market. They can outbid you and offer 100% cash on any property that you...
  19. Sergio123

    Why is TLT and IWM Diverging?

    I think TLT and IWM need to both start dropping hard and fast......And then the selloff needs to bleed over into the megacaps. Then the Fed will start issuing rate cuts. Then eventually the market broadens and moves up all togethor. This could take several months to play out.
  20. Sergio123

    Why is TLT and IWM Diverging?

    There might be more randomness without much rhyme or reason during Summer months.
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