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Dr. Olmifon, The E.T. forum is probably not a good place to debate the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH), because EMH is based on very long term investing and most respondents at E.T. are short term traders (thus the term Elite "Trader"). I will however ask you to...

Pekelo, Let me test your technical prowness with a question from the attached chart of the SPX: which 50 day moving average will stop the current rally? the 50 Exp. Moving Average, or the 50 Simple Moving Average? Jeff

This August was my best month in 10 years of trading options. Coincidently, the VIX hit 37.5 this month, which is a several year high! For my type of index option trading (buying straight calls and puts), a high VIX really helps make the systems work at maximum efficiency. However I...

Chart shows the pullback to the 50ma with 15 minute candles that I suggested would happen earlier this morning. Lets see if the market can hold the line.

The Ball is probably correct for the AM session. Likely pullback to the 50ma on the 15 minute candle chart.

In reality the slump started when Rennick took that "Wild Hogs" vacation. Something went down on that vacation that effected his "predictive powers." Maybe the mayonnaise jar has been tampered with? Maybe Funk & Wagnel has sold out? "Rennick, what mind altering substances did you partake...

My system trade for today (dip to 50ma on chart) agreed with Rennick's morning call, but my system continued to be bullish throughout the day.

Rennick, Question: "Are you the "Great Carnac" (from the old Johnny Carson show) coming out of retirement?" "If so, are these calls coming out of a mayonnaise jar protected by Funk & Wagnels?" Jeff

So we finally got the dip (as in "buy the dip") and now the signal is short? Come on! Make up your mind Rennick!

Rennick, Are you still holding those 44 Q puts? Most of the time charts tell a better story than balls (ggg). Jeff

JJ, I agree with you. The "chartists" in the crowd are looking at the possibility of shorting into the declining 20dma (SPX: 1460). Jeff

In the 4 year history of this current bull market, the rising 80 week moving average has supported every downturn in the SPX on a weekly candle closing basis. The 80 week moving average is also the equivilent time frame of the more significant 20 month moving average (unfortunately...

Landis, I believe the SPX is eventually headed for support at its rising 80 week moving average (SPX: 1380). Does your Elliott Wave method agree or disagree with this area of support? Jeff

In the 4 plus years of this bull market, the 80 week moving average (on a closing candle basis) has contained all pullbacks. There is no reason to believe it won't hold this time.

If TA doesn't work, then why did the 3 day rally on the SPX fail exactly at the declining 20 day moving average? "That's a classic textbook technical resistance point for a short term downtrend."

In my opinion we may get a short lived rally into the declining 20 ema (SPX 1490-1492) and then head lower.

Hog, "Good post, it mirrors my sentiments exactly!" Jeff

"I have noticing that ever since the SEC changed the shorting rules a few weeks ago, the market volatility (VIX) has exploded!" This has added lots of excitement to the markets.

The dynamics of the stock market constantly change and because of this "personality change," you need to adjust you trading methods. One type of trading method (or system) doesn't "fit all." Type A: (declining VIX) The markets can trend steady and smooth. You jump aboard trends and...

Bill, I use several different trading systems (swing, day & scalp) for index option trading and all my systems are lit up with puts as well. However on day like this when everything appears over the top bullish, I wait until either 2:30pm or 4:10pm to buy puts, depending on what I...