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Just like I pointed out in December 2018, this long term bull market is being supported by its 40 month moving average. The only thing that will stop this bull market is a monthly closing candle definitively below its 40 month moving average. That is really all that matters. The rest is noise...

In the decades that I have been trading, our group of traders (family and friends) use to keep track of the correlation between: 1: Pre-market futures Up: Dow= +100 Dow / SP500= +10, versus closing prices on that day; Bull Market= closed Up 70% (or >) of the time. / Bear Market= closed Down <...

Hi PennySnatch, For some reason, you got me emotionally invested in what's happening to you. You have been trading around 3 years? Would you mind letting us know what kind of trading have you have been doing (stocks...options...futures?), and what method were you using to determine when your...

A few words of wisdom (or stupidity?) after 21 years of trading: 1: Its takes about 9-10 years to fully develop a trading system that is consistently profitable. 2: Its takes a special kind of psychological makeup to accomplish the disciplined act of trading day after day, week after week, and...

I agree with what your saying, its really easier to follow the trend of a stock, than to play the counter trend. You had a +10 point rise on GS from the March 11 entry to March 19, why didn't you take partial profits on March 19, or at least move you stop to breakeven?

With EFT Options: (9 years to develop this program) I do not choose my own option entries. My computer program outputs the entries automatically the evening before, based on mathematical computations and formula's from that day's option price action of calls and puts price...

"To me, everything you said above, makes absolutely no sense. It shows a real lack of understanding and experience in today's markets." We are in a new age of quantitative analyst and programmed automated trading. Your thinking and concepts are like a trader from the 70's. Do you really...

The most helpful thing that I can recommend after more than 20 years of trading is this: If your working, you can't be watching your trades and you don't want to have orders out there in the marketplace unattended,so get an Interactive Brokers (IB) account and use the semi-automation on their...

Does your technical analysis determine exact price values for buy limit, sell limit and stop? Are you using trend analysis (up, down, or sideways), Moving Averages and candle formations to determine when to long or short? For example: From my classic Pristine training from the 1990's, in the 2...

Excellent analysis of these stocks, good option choices, your doing a really good job. How did your trading consistency and profit hold up in the month of December 2018?

It took me 9 years to be consistently profitable. I am now in year 21. In those first 9 years, I went through every single thing you wrote in your post. It sounds like you have the same problems that I had, discipline and psychology. Here's what I figured out to overcome the battle within: Step...

The SP500 is approaching its first level of resistance, the declining 50 day moving average. Interesting Note: The 50dma is really close to a 50% recovery of the September 2018 high (2940) to the December 2018 low (2346) . 2940 (high) minus 2346 (low) = -594 decline (-20% decline from the Sep...

Thank you. The two most important very long term MA's is the 20 month and 40 month moving average. A monthly candle close below the 40ma indicates a bear market follows. A monthly candle close above the 20ma in a bear market, indicates a bull market follows. Now to your question about the...

Hi Murray, I totally agree, the SP500 has stacked levels of resistance to break through: 50dma, 200dma, and 400dma (equivalent to 20 month moving average). [SP500, 6 months, daily candles, 50ma, 200ma, and 400ma]

With respect to where to re-enter the stock market during (or after) a bear market, lets closely look at a very interesting study of the only two bear markets in the last 26 years. This study attempts to help answer the question: "When is it safe to re-enter the stock market during or after a...

1: My knowledge of the monthly 40ma is based on decades of reading periodicals about stock market timing, long before there was an internet and PC's. Yes, there was a dark period in history when you had to call your broker to make an investment change, or fill out a buy or sell request form and...

I appreciate your comments and point of view. Please keep on eye on this indicator at the end of each month and if you see a monthly closing candle definitely (-1.5% or greater) below the 40ma, please observe what occurs thereafter.

The charts below are a perfect example why I use a closing monthly candle below the 40ma before declaring a bear market and bailing out of long term equity investments. This first chart is a 3 year chart of SP500, monthly candles, 40ma, but I have this chart deliberately stop on Dec 24, 2018...

Notice below the correlation between the stock market (SP500) and the VIX index. The SP500 has been in a 3 month short to intermediate term Downtrend: [SP500, 3 months, daily candles, 50ma] --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------...